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Notes -
Polymarket removes prediction market on when the downed F-15 pilots would be rescued.
Yesterday, a two-seater USAF F-15E was shot down over Iran. One of the crew members was successfully rescued. The other is still unaccounted for. This was big news in the United States, and probably across the whole world.
Polymarket, being Polymarket, put up a prediction market on when the pilots would be rescued. United States service members are a sacred class in our society, and so this market got a lot of heat, including from congresspeople.
Polymarket responded by immediately removing the market, citing “integrity standards”.
Of course, the market doesn’t violate Polymarket’s integrity standards. No specific policy or clause is cited. Anyone browsing the “geopolitics” section on Polymarket knows that war markets are allowed. They even provide a helpful note on Middle East conflict markets to let you know what their position is:
It goes without saying that removing the pilot rescue market flies in the face of the principles stated above. Maybe Polymarket never believed in them, and markets on foreign wars involving Eastern Europeans and Middle Easterners was a cynical way to get eyes on their website.
So if the stated rules are fake, then what is the real rule? I don’t think it is, “respect American servicemen,” exactly. I suspect that, “do not jeopardize American combat operations,” is a much better fit for what is and is not allowed in a de facto sense.
this is such bullshit. Kalshi did the same thing about Khomeini's death. Because he died instead of vacating, the trades were voided even though his death had the same outcome. Markets "work" because there are rules that everyone agrees on ahead of time. When these rules are changed arbitrarily when money is at stake then people lose confidence in markets. Also, there is not even anything disrespectful about this. A betting market does not imply people do not want him to be found. It's possible to be pessimistic about an outcome in the short-term, while still hoping for an ultimately positive outcome. They may as well just put a huge disclaimer on their site "we reserve the right to void any market for any reason we deem fit"
This is the arbitrary moral posturing that makes people hate and distrust "big tech "companies. But this is where money is at stake. These prediction a markets are huge, with billions in funding. They can afford to take a stand. Caving to moralistic pressure will mean users losing trust in them.
Isn't that basically what the insurance companies are doing now whey Force Majeure? But yes, i agree that sites like Polymarket are at a pretty low level of respectability right now. Its like gambling in some underground mafia-owned casino.
Force majeure is pretty rare and reserved for exceptional circumstances, not that they don't want to pay on a policy. If that's the case, they'll usually find another reason not to pay.
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