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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   20225 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 6, 2026

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I am repeating claims made by General Caine a few days ago see here:

https://www.themotte.org/post/3671/culture-war-roundup-for-the-week/429651?context=8#context

Besides the missiles we have destroyed we have destroyed the vast majority of Irania factories that build missiles and the parts for missiles.

then why is the strait allowing <10% of traffic even now?

“Allowing” is the wrong verb. Iran has threatened shipping and some ships have paid the bribe to pass unmolested. Some ships have also run the strait without paying the bribe. The strait has never been completely closed but the risk is still higher than what most ships are willing to accept. Iran does not control the strait but still threatens it.

According to the terms of the ceasefire, Iran is supposed to allow strait shipping unmolested. Many ships are still not moving because of the perceived risk.

about the missiles, this is this account which estimated 20,000 missiles at 12-day war time.

https://xcancel.com/pati_marins64/status/2042087687406903788

Regarding Strait's traffic. The US has won, yet its ally is still fighting. The US has destroyed 80-90-95% of the opponent's navy, missiles, and missile production systems, and yet it is unable to:

  1. convince insurance companies or the tanker companies to feel safe enough to pass through the strait.
  2. not providing direct security to these tankers in their un-opposed navy through their passage.

While Lloyd's shows this:

Iran unveils its own Hormuz traffic separation scheme

  • Vessels transiting the chokepoint must coordinate with the IRGC Navy (not US navy).
  • Iran’s latest guidance explicitly warns of anti-ship mines in the main traffic zone of the strait.
  • IRGC Navy continues to vet all traffic passing through the strait on the basis of geopolitical affiliation.

Source

In reality, US appears to have been in a hurry to shut down the ill-conceived war while exaggerating its claims to have won. While in reality, Iranians haven't lost it. The existence of a toll (of $2 million, in yuan/crypto) will mean that Iran has the upper hand. And losers never have the upper hand.

I don’t know who Patricia Marins is or why her estimate is significant but her analysis seems at odds with General Caine’s. She claims that Iran has significant missile reserves left and also notes that Iran has a huge industry dedicated to building missiles. General Caine says that America believes we have destroyed 80-90% of this industry already.

Likewise I can’t read Lloyd’s paywalled report, but your summary seems at odds with some known facts. One is that some ships have run the strait without seeking Iranian approval. Another is that the terms of the ceasefire prohibit Iran from tolling the strait. — If they feel strong enough to do so anyways and the ceasefire breaks down, well, we will see who is winning the war after America bombs Iran’s electrical grid back to the Stone Age. It’s just as likely though that this war ends without Iran tolling the strait, which would prove what I’ve been saying all along.

destroyed 80% of missile industry

Where are you reading this? Is it Caine’s remarks here? https://youtube.com/watch?v=aCCkrjlfyVk

There is a difference between “destroying 80% of the industry” and what I’m hearing from General Caine:

  • “attacked 90% of weapons factories” does not tell us what percentage of their total weapons’ industry has been degraded

  • 80% of missile defense facilities being “gone” does not tell us about their ballistic missiles, or even what percentage of total missile defense has been gone, as their significant facilities are all below ground and only the numerous less important small-scale facilities are above ground. (Theoretically, you can destroy 80% of the missile defense facilities while only damaging 10% of the total missile defense production line).

If we have ships routinely paying tolls, and America does not resume bombing, will you score that as a loss for America?

I am literally on record in this comment chain saying that Iran will not be allowed to toll the strait.

Noted.

I think your analysis and predictions are mistaken, but I really, really, really hope you are right and I am wrong. Time will tell.

i think both of us agree to a basic yes/no point: whether Iran is/will be able to put a toll charge or not.

If Iran is able to, then it has won. If it is not able to, then it has lost.

There are new developments showing that Taiwan is in talks with China (for reunification). If it actually happens in that side of the world, US would have what we know as Pyrrhic victory.

lets see.

Yeah sure I’m already on record in this comment chain predicting that Iran will not be allowed to toll the strait

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