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If your interpretation of events is that the American navy is running scared of the Iranian navy I really don’t have anything else to add. I don’t just think you are wrong and will be rebuked by events but have already been rebuked by events that have already happened.
Again, the US navy failed against the Houthis. The US had better geography in the red sea and a weaker opponent. The US navy runs into a major issue in both places. They can sit off the coast and get shot with no real way of actually winning. They can shoot down drones using several multi million dollar SAM that are in limited supply without achieving much. They are running into the same issues the US army ran into in Afghanistan except on a larger scale.
Besides, we have seen how the US military has failed at defending itself from incoming drones and missiles. The difference here is that there is a 5 billion dollar target on the recieving end.
From Kuwait to the Indian ocean is 1000 km. How many ships will this mission require? What will be the goal apart from having ships pass the same way they passed in January without the tremendous waste.
You're in fantasy land here. You can (and the US and Gulf countries have) shoot down with a Shahed with a machine gun. It's just a small aircraft.
Then why are they getting through and hitting targets? Hitting something moving in 3D at several hundred km/h is far harder than you think.
Also it is 1000 km from Kuwait to the Indian ocean. That is a lot of ships with machine guns to cover that straight.
Ukraine has after years of building up anti Shahed defences a major issue with shaheds getting through. Often Russia uses saturation attacks with multiple drones against a single target.
It's really not very hard. The main problem with Shaheds is ensuring you have the air defense assets in the right place to detect and intercept them.
That doesn't explain the videos from Ukraine of air defences getting blown up by shaheds
https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1sidqea/ru_pov_geranium_drones_are_targeting_ukrainian/
This Ukrainian anti drone machine gun crew was recently taken out by a shahed.
The efficacy of the anti air systems have to be very high. 50 drones to hit one 5 billion dollar destroyer is worth it. Dozens of drones to take out an oil tanker is worth it.
The area of operations is vast. The amount of guns operating 24 seven is vast.
Also they are vulnerable to cruise and ballistic missiles.
Sometimes even multi-million dollar guided missiles miss. However you showed me a bunch of guys in a technical (maybe). Sometimes guys in technicals also miss.
So far it seems like the US and Gulf Nations have intercepted the majority of the missiles and drones the Iranians have launched. Given that the US was unwilling to come to an agreement, and seems to have used the truce to prepare for a second round of combat, likely with the aid of the Gulf nations, it appears that Iran has failed to establish deterrence with their ballistic/cruise missile arsenal.
This does not mean the Shahed is a bad weapon (in fact, I think rather highly of it). But the reason that Iran had these drones and missiles was precisely to deter the United States and Israel from acting. From that perspective, they failed in February, and if the combat resumes, they will have failed a third time.
The american side has fired well over a thousand patriot missiles and a sizeable portion of THAAD missiles. This is not only extremely expensive but weakens the US against Russia and China.
Iran made attacking it a poor decision. Making a choice a poor choice doesn't help if the opponent make second rate choices. Trump seems surprised that the straight is closed. Clearly the US isn't making decisions on sound information.
Who could have predicted this!
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