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Notes -
No peace deal with Iran
Can I just point out that 21 hours seems too short for negotiations? I don't think the talks were done in earnest, at all. The 150-page JCPOA took almost 2 years of frivolous negotiations and lasted just as long. A 21 hour session in the middle of an active conflict is not very likely to reach a better equilibrium that both parties are happy with. Iran carried bloodstained schoolbags of kids killed in the Minab strike on the flight to Pakistan, they were certainly not there to surrender. I suspect the administration (or at least Vance) already knew this, and deliberately structured one-sided terms intended to be rejected so Trump can attempt building political scaffolding for escalation and blame Iran ("Look, we offered Iran a peace deal and they chose not to accept it"). Meanwhile, the Israelis have been busy!
Between accepting one of the greatest strategic defeats in decades, and trying to prosecute a horrific war amidst historic energy and food prices, we remain stuck with the latter.
Why? These things are usually drawn out because America and Iran don’t negotiate directly and pass everything through intermediaries. And by Trump’s account they agreed essentially on every point except for the nuclear question. I don’t see why it would take longer than 21 hours to realize that, the idea that negotiating is this special activity that takes lots of expertise is a myth from the Georgetown school of foreign policy to promote the need for bureaucrat-scholars to run everything.
The leading theory on this forum a week ago was that Trump was losing so badly he would accept any peace deal as long as it was face-saving and he could declare victory. Not so?
America totally destroyed Iran’s military in a stunning lopsided victory. I’ve been told this was only a tactical victory because Iran now controls the straits and is using that as leverage, but, weirdly, Trump is now announcing a blockade of the straits himself. Perhaps America isn’t defeated?
I fear that denying this will have me marked as some kind of rabid Trump fanboy who can’t deal with reality but I have to point out that oil was much higher during the 2008 crisis, back when the same dollars were worth more.
I had to make an account to respond to you because I’ve seen your comments the past week. You do realize that this war is incredibly unpopular right? This war guarantees a Democratic wipeout unless in the next week or so Iran collapses and we avoid the economic fallout. So then we probably get an impeachment and the lamest of lame duck presidencies. So this way is a disaster for Trump, MAGA and the Republicans even if we’re winning the war. Plus Trump campaigned on no new wars and America First so he basically now has betrayed his biggest supporters.
Also, what would it take for you to admit this war was a mistake? If we don’t get regime change, they keep their proxies, and they keep their nuclear program, what was the point of this war? What did we win? They now have more leverage than before because they can tank the world economy any time they want.
Based
I don’t care. My theory is operating at a much higher level than the midterms. We’re talking about global power and America controlling the world’s key infrastructure and nuclear weapons and Donald Trump’s heroic memory in the body politic. I don’t care if Charlemagne loses the midterms or Martin Luther gets impeached.
I don’t think Trump cares either. At least, among his many priorities, solving Iran and the Middle East comes before we pivot to the midterms. Ideally this is wrapped up by then. If not it’s still worth doing.
When did Trump betray me? I’m in favor of all of this. The Iran War is part of America First because it is building a generational victory where America is undisputed hegemon of the world.
I understand that many of Trump’s supporters are dismayed or skeptical. Most of my friends are. I’ve called them all panicans, to their faces.
The proxies we destroyed? The nuke program we destroyed?
Well no, it turns out they can’t. But we can.
Why won't you answer this simple question?
It has now been 29 days since you said that the war will basically be wrapped up in three weeks.
Is it even possible for you to admit that the war was a mistake, or do you believe that everything "achieved" so far has already made it worth it regardless of how it ends? If so, you should just say so, so that we can all update accordingly.
In the post you linked I said five weeks, and it’s been six, so can I say “same difference potato potato” or do I need to explain what someone really means when they say “just a second”?
Because you seemingly phrased this question such that I’m actually irrational and refusing to recognize the truth (“that the war was a mistake”) as though my zealotry is blinding my eyes. Next I can say “nothing can ever convince me” and you can all roll your eyes and write me off? Is it possible for you to admit that the war is going well?
Is this the case, then?
Sure. For example:
Those are the kind of things that would make me say the war was a success. Now it's your turn!
Considering that the war is going well something pretty dramatic would have to change for it to become a failure. But for the sake of argument let's see...
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