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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   2611 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 3, 2026

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If somebody controls an important pass

Question: does Pakistan also control the Strait of Hormuz? It's within range of their ASBMs, so what's stopping them from threatening to close it every time they get into a scrap with India?

Maybe they are not insane enough for that?

Pakistan throwing missiles at ships crossing the Strait wouldn’t change the strategic calculations at all for India, and Pakistan would immediately collapse under the retaliation of the countries annoyed at its actions. So no, Pakistan doesn’t control the strait.

Iran forced the US military into an unfavourable ceasefire and now seems to be even coercing a peace treaty by doing the same, and so far they seem to be taking the punishment fine. So yes Iran is obviously the country with by far the most control of the Strait.

Nothing, I guess, if they really do have that ability. I would dispute equating "conducting a sneak-assassination of the entire leadership plus an extended bombing campaign, aimed at some combination of overturning the country's government + preventing them from developing weapons that might actually hurt their attackers" with "getting into a scrap". But yes, if India did that and Pakistan succeeded in closing the Strait of Hormuz, I would naturally blame India.

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