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Notes -
Is anyone else starting to freak out about the whole Hormuz situation? 13% of the world's oil, 22% of global LNG and a sizeable chunk of fertilizers is blocked. That means 13% fewer big machines running. That is a major decrease in the global economy. Yet markets seem surprisingly stable and people don't seem to be freaking out despite the impending cliff.
Is Trump actually crazy enough to cause a major crash in the global economy or is he willing to admit defeat and pull out? How bad will this crisis actually get?
I have assumed things would get pretty bad when the amount of US military hardware moving to the region made this very unlikely to be a dud. So I did the reasonable thing and leveraged into some crude oil futures. So far I have been proven mostly correct in this with some decent profit, but not as much as I expected. I cashed in a bit but mostly HODLING to the moon because I believe even though Trump has realized he has massively fucked up, Iranians will not let this opportunity go so easily and they are a bit too high on their own supply, and the Israel state/lobby is going to do everything it can do to drag this into a bigger war.
To answer your actual question, no I don't think Trump is crazy enough to do that, but he seemingly might be stupid enough to do it anyway. Simply the strait staying shut for months without major fighting would be really really bad already. But things can escalate to a massive catastrophe if shooting starts again and oil infra is really blown up. So far it was mostly warning shots.
Also it is hilariously pathetic to start a war and kill half the leadership of a country in a rather treacherous way under cover of negotiations, only to start moaning about international law and "economic fallout is actually their fault" when they retaliate in the most predictable ways. I must admit I did not realize just that American right wingers are this idiotic, as I was too young during all the Bush years. These people really deserve what they will get in a couple years.
P.S. if you want to force yourself to learn and monitor the shit out of some topic, nothing like betting a modest amount of money in it. I have no idea how people can sleep at night with million dollar positions.
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