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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   2611 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for May 3, 2026

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

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Is anyone else starting to freak out about the whole Hormuz situation? 13% of the world's oil, 22% of global LNG and a sizeable chunk of fertilizers is blocked. That means 13% fewer big machines running. That is a major decrease in the global economy. Yet markets seem surprisingly stable and people don't seem to be freaking out despite the impending cliff.

Is Trump actually crazy enough to cause a major crash in the global economy or is he willing to admit defeat and pull out? How bad will this crisis actually get?

Yes, but more about the ridiculousness of the ongoing situation than about oil shortages or whatever.

There you are, for some reason I haven't been seeing your posts recently.

I haven't been posting recently, I've been lurking. Most of the stuff going around is boring right now I guess.

There is no equilibrium oil price in the current political environment. If the strait stays closed, then the price will go up. But if the price goes up too much, then Trump will chicken out and do whatever needs to be done to open the strait back up. If the strait opens up, then the price of oil will crash. This means that there is almost no upside to speculating that the price will go above ≈ $125/barrel.

Wasn’t physical crude trading at 140$ just couple weeks ago? Not that I would speculate a serious amount of money into this, but Trump so far hasn’t proven entirely able to TACO even though he obviously really wants to. Iran and Israel have a big say in the events to come and both have strong hardliner factions which favour more escalation. It wouldn’t be an entirely unreasonable bet into an escalation spiral.

There were localized spikes to that level, but that’s different from a a global continuous price that high.

There are military options available to force the strait open if it comes to that. They won’t be easy or politically friendly to Trump, but they are possible.

What are these military options in your view? Are you talking about a land invasion?

I just cannot see how, in the case of a US military operation forceful enough to actually stop the blockade or break down the Iranian state, Iranians would not missile spam every single Gulf oil field so it does not even make sense to ship anything through the Strait anymore.

I have assumed things would get pretty bad when the amount of US military hardware moving to the region made this very unlikely to be a dud. So I did the reasonable thing and leveraged into some crude oil futures. So far I have been proven mostly correct in this with some decent profit, but not as much as I expected. I cashed in a bit but mostly HODLING to the moon because I believe even though Trump has realized he has massively fucked up, Iranians will not let this opportunity go so easily and they are a bit too high on their own supply, and the Israel state/lobby is going to do everything it can do to drag this into a bigger war.

To answer your actual question, no I don't think Trump is crazy enough to do that, but he seemingly might be stupid enough to do it anyway. Simply the strait staying shut for months without major fighting would be really really bad already. But things can escalate to a massive catastrophe if shooting starts again and oil infra is really blown up. So far it was mostly warning shots.

Also it is hilariously pathetic to start a war and kill half the leadership of a country in a rather treacherous way under cover of negotiations, only to start moaning about international law and "economic fallout is actually their fault" when they retaliate in the most predictable ways. I must admit I did not realize just that American right wingers are this idiotic, as I was too young during all the Bush years. These people really deserve what they will get in a couple years.

P.S. if you want to force yourself to learn and monitor the shit out of some topic, nothing like betting a modest amount of money in it. I have no idea how people can sleep at night with million dollar positions.

Not really. I got most of my feeling awful out of the way in the first few days, when we were bragging about lethality vs. schoolgirls. Now I just feel numb and annoyed.

Maybe if the economy implodes, I’ll have a better chance at finding a house.

Yet markets seem surprisingly stable

Not only are they stable, the global stock market (as measured by VT)—the aggregation of forward-looking, skin-in-the-game outlooks for the world economy—closed two days in a row for record highs on Thursday and Friday. This is on the tails of having just hit a then-record high about two weeks ago prior.

We're now up about 2.7% since before the war begin, which is a good return for a two-month span. On the country level, it has been well-demonstrated empirically (thus, confirming the theoretical expectation) that stock market returns are a strong predictor of future GDP growth, and the global stock market is just the collection of country stock markets across the world.

There are two separate issues you've mixed together. The increasing supply crisis. And your hate for the West, the US and Trump. Trump didn't block the strait. Iran did. Only putting blame and responsibility on Trump is a sign of bias.

There are two separate issues you've mixed together. The increasing supply crisis. And your hate for the West, the US and Trump. Trump didn't block the strait. Iran did. Only putting blame and responsibility on Trump is a sign of bias.

If I was your older brother, the appropriate response to this would be to grab your arms, give you a couple good whacks, and tell you to stop hitting yourself.

  • -13

You and @TowardsPanna - stop this. Engage in the question, not in petty bickering with each other.

Good thing your wish to engange in violence based on a pretty brief and innocent internet post is only a hypothetical.

The point is that forcing somebody to do something and then blaming them for doing it is petty and sadistic.

If somebody controls an important pass, and you slaughter their family and make it clear that you will continue to slaughter until you get unconditional obedience, then closing off the pass is the obvious and natural response.

Some Americans seem to have got so fed up with being criticised unreasonably that they have lost the capacity to see when they are being criticised reasonably. Others seem to believe that Red Americans (as opposed to the hated Blues) can do no wrong and should be acclaimed throughout the world as the righteous God-Kings they obviously are - or else.

Nobody forced Iran to declare US a "Great Satan", build a vast collection of proxy armies, commit terrorist acts and pursue nuclear weapons, while openly declaring they are going to use them to perpetrate genocide. They chose to live this life. Now they are living the life they have chosen. Their choices led them to the situation where the only choices for their opponents would be either live under a permanent threat of nuclear attack or take measures to preclude this threat before it realized. Iranians had multiple opportunities to get off this train, instead they doubled and tripled down - because their apocalyptic ideology and their belief the West is weak and decadent and can be bullied if one is determined enough - mandated this strategy. Of course, the West did a lot to support that assumption, but this is not an excuse.

is the obvious and natural response.

As much obvious and natural response as shooting you is an obvious and natural response of a robber who is caught by you unexpectedly returning home in mid-robbery. Yes, it is obvious, and yes, it is natural for a violent criminal to resort to violence. I am not sure how you get from "obvious and natural" to "commendable and desirable". It is natural for a criminal to do crime. It is natural for a bunch of crazy apocalyptic cultists to behave like crazy apocalyptic cultists. How that "natural" is any good?

Some Americans seem to have got so fed up with being criticised unreasonably that they have lost the capacity to see when they are being criticised reasonably.

That's empty rhetoric. Of course everybody believe their criticism it the most reasonable one. It does not make it so. You have to actually prove it, you can't just state it and then stand and expect everybody to go "oh, how couldn't we see it before, the is the reasonable one, it's all different now!" Just because you call yourself "reasonable", does not score you any points in the actual reasonableness. On the contrary, when you engage in rule lawyering and defend your criticism with arguments like "oh, you just lost the ability to be criticized and that's why you are not agreeing with me" one is tempted to conclude you do not expect your argument to be strong enough to stand on its merits, without supporting it with attacks on the opponent's mental capacity, instead of addressing their arguments.

While we're talking about relative morality and sibling relationships, Iran is, in my mind, the little brother who constantly flicks your nuts, talks about how they'll beat the shit out of you when they're older, and then runs crying to mommy (the U.N.) when you hit them back.

This is a crappy war we shouldn't have started, but I understand why it happened. I also have very little sympathy for a murderous theocracy so incapable of dealing with reality and so hateful to the average human that it's decided to go scorched earth at every fork in the road.

If somebody controls an important pass

Question: does Pakistan also control the Strait of Hormuz? It's within range of their ASBMs, so what's stopping them from threatening to close it every time they get into a scrap with India?

Maybe they are not insane enough for that?

Pakistan throwing missiles at ships crossing the Strait wouldn’t change the strategic calculations at all for India, and Pakistan would immediately collapse under the retaliation of the countries annoyed at its actions. So no, Pakistan doesn’t control the strait.

Iran forced the US military into an unfavourable ceasefire and now seems to be even coercing a peace treaty by doing the same, and so far they seem to be taking the punishment fine. So yes Iran is obviously the country with by far the most control of the Strait.

Nothing, I guess, if they really do have that ability. I would dispute equating "conducting a sneak-assassination of the entire leadership plus an extended bombing campaign, aimed at some combination of overturning the country's government + preventing them from developing weapons that might actually hurt their attackers" with "getting into a scrap". But yes, if India did that and Pakistan succeeded in closing the Strait of Hormuz, I would naturally blame India.

The US is currently blockading the straight. The straight was open until Trump and Netanyahu started the war that brought us the completely predictable result of the straight being closed. The straight won't be open until they sign a peace deal with Iran.

I don't hate the west. I do hate wars that flood the west with migrants, stop oil supplies and cost a fortune. The wars in the middle east are anti west.

I beg you - it's the strait of Hormuz.

Yeah, it's a lot harder to find the gays of Hormuz.

Yet another consequence of the brutal Iranian regime.

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