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Not the OP, but a couple of points here. I could very easily say:
(I've omitted the ostracisation part, as I don't think that's supported in my parallel; but I don't think omitting it fundamentally changes the idea.)
The above is just true. But if men then had a culture of saying there was a "male genocide", and that their society was "androphobic" because of this, I'd get very annoyed, because -- as @WandererintheWilderness says -- it's an attempt to parlay a weaker, true claim ("men are more likely to be victims of violence") into a hysterical false one ("society is systemically murdering men!!")
Part of why I'm raising the parallel: one way trans activists misrepresent this stuff is by comparing trans women to women rather than to men. IIRC, men have a higher rate of being victims of violence than trans women? (It might require some statistical stuff like "once you correct for dangerous occupations like being a sex worker", or it might just be outright; I don't remember.)
There's something kind of ridiculous about this world model:
Like... no? This isn't even epicycles; this is no model at all. The dangerous portion of being (1) trans and (2) biologically male... is not the trans part. If a soldier chooses to call themselves a "trans accountant", they don't get to go "My workplace death rate is higher than cis accountants -- this is discrimination".
I appreciate you saying so, but this does seem like a weaker formulation than what you should probably agree to. "extremely elevated risk"? Is your position that white Western trans women are at an elevated risk of murder -- possibly even a very high one -- but it just doesn't rise to the level of "extremely"? Because I'm reasonably sure the accurate version of this would just be "they aren't at an elevated risk of murder". Similarly, I wouldn't say "the trans genocide is overblown", I'd say "the trans genocide is fictitious". We can certainly discuss different patterns of violence and how they interact with being trans, but framing that as "genocide" needs to be immediately met with "you are lying for political expediency". (The generalised "you", I mean; you're not lying.)
It's also a bit of a motte and bailey: the bulk of trans activism focuses on white Western culture as performing some kind of trans genocide. Then when criticised, it becomes "Well, in this non-white, non-Western part of the world, these non-white-non-Western cultures are dangerous for trans people!" Again, you're not personally responsible for what other people are arguing; but you get how this is frustrating, right?
Better to say, I think, that the trans genocide is a motte-and-bailey. What queer theorists mean when they discuss "trans genocide" among themselves is rarely anything to do with the murder rate - the actual analogy is to residential schools, not Auschwitz; cultural genocide, forced assimilation and reeducation, an attempt to stamp out trans as an identity. I think it's hard to argue that this isn't happening, given that a majority of conservatives on and off this forum would openly advocate for it. There's just a root disagreement about whether it's actually a bad thing or not.
(There's also a terminological dispute about whether it's ever appropriate to use "genocide" to talk about processes that don't involve literal mass murder, or if that's always, inherently, motte-and-bailey. I can see both sides of that argument, but I don't think we should over-focus on it in the trans case, because advocates of the "trans genocide" terminology are ultimately just drawing on what is, as per the Wikipedia link, a widespread use of the term in their intellectual milieu. They're doing a separate disingenuous thing when they try to bring up the sloppy statistics to justify the trans-genocide thing, deliberately blurring the line between genocide-as-murder and genocide-as-assimilation more than they need to.)
As a person who is on the side that genocide should be intentional mass murder, we've already lost this in the mainstream. Between stuff like the residential schools, the holodomor (a tragic event but reserving scarce resources for your favored groups by taking away from your less favored groups is not murder, regardless if they die or even if the scarcity is a result of your economic incompetence), and the "Uyghur genocide", it's already clear that intentional murder or even death at all is not a requirement to how people use the phrase.
If we mean it in the most abstract cultural sense then yeah I think "trans genocide" isn't really that off, but that's largely because genocides of all types are happening then. If you genocide Muslims by banning practice of the extreme parts of their religion, then why can't zoning laws be a genocide of would be home builders? In that case, efforts to ban hormone treatment or whatever are also genocides too.
Although ofc this also does depend on the country. If you're like in Saudi Arabia where the state will death penalty you and the population will reliably chop off your head or stone you for being LGBT, then yeah I guess that's an actual real genocide there. But in the west? No. Mass violence does not happen in the west.
Edit: Importantly, not being genocide doesn't mean something is good! The oppression and collective punishment of the uyghurs, the starvation and mistreatment during the holodomor, the residential schools, etc are still bad things! I am a maximal freedom libertarian type and don't think you should be banning stuff like hormones and surgery regardless of anything like regret rates. I don't think collective punishment is ever acceptable, genocide or not. And zoning laws are still the work of the devil, even if it's not genociding home builders.
Plenty of Uyghurs have been intentionally murdered by the CCP.
Even the Wikipedia page for it doesn't allege that as an actual common thing.
In all the stuff they list, none of them are death or murder. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Uyghurs_in_China
You can check with other major sources, even the stuff actively calling it genocide won't allege that there is mass murder.
This is a UK tribunal literally calling it genocide and they still concluded that mass killings didn't occur and most end up freed. There have been a very small number killed by guards or whatever, but some prison guards beating people to death is not the same as widespread murder policy.
This article from 2020 claims that China conducts in excess of 60,000 organ transplants a year, including for vital organs like hearts. Given that this is vastly in excess of the number of people on the voluntary transplant list, and the number of people killed in traffic accidents or executed in conventional prisons isn't sufficient to meet demand, it logically follows that China must be killing, at the minimum, thousands of Uyghurs every year in order to harvest their organs.
Taking Falun Gong complaints seriously makes me immediately distrustful of any numbers the article wants to throw out. Falun Gong claims that they are being harvested by extra dimensional aliens who have taken over and corrupted society in order to use human bodies (which are the best bodies in all the dimensions apparently) and they are especially targeted because their bodies are extra perfect. It is impossible to trust their numbers and claims about organ harvesting.
And yes that is seriously what they believe https://time.com/archive/6954898/interview-with-li-hongzhi-2/
If someone is saying Falun Gong complaints around organ harvesting are serious and truthful, there is no reason to believe they have a good epistemic hygiene and solid sourcing with their claims about Ughyurs.
Especially when it's not backed up by any other mainstream claimers of genocide! That's the important thing here, the only claim of mass organ harvesting of Uyghurs is also from a dude stupid enough to fall for "the extra dimension aliens are harvesting our organs". Maybe he's just stupid.
Does the data about the number of organ transplants per year come from Falun Gong?
Why should I trust the numbers from a guy who thinks believing in extradimensional shape shifting aliens trying to take organs from people who actively claim to do telekinesis and water walking is credible?
Like he literally says calling them a cult is "mainland propaganda"
But what else can you describe their wacky religious practices as?
And yet despite this, even the article still acknowledges that actual mainstream organizations do not believe in the organ harvesting claims.
...
So even in this article where we are supposed to take the shape shifting aliens who suppress our natural superpowers that can be unlocked through joining the totally not cult of Falun Gong as a normal thing only discredited by mainland propagandists, it still acknowledges that these claims of organ harvesting are not supported in the mainstream.
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