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Notes -
Lets talk about the Senate Democratic Primaries.
Maine
Graham Platener, aka nazi tattoo guy, aka "disabled" veteran oyster man, is the presumptive Democratic nominee in Maine after 78-year-old former governer Janet Mills dropped out. Platner will be running against the incumbant moderate Republican Susan Collins in the general.
Susan Collins has won five straight terms in Maine, but she is the underdog in the upcoming election due to the expected blue wave.
The Maine election is interesting because the conventional wisdom is that Democrats need to run an unusually moderate candidate to win, and Platner shows that we don't have a good conception of what "moderate" even means. On policy positions Platner is leftist, but culturally he has the effect of a rural white tough-guy (as one might have expected from the Nazi tattoo). Expect the results of this one to be poured-over for years in candidate selection debates.
Michigan
The Michigan Democratic primary is complicated by having three candidates instead of two. Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow, and Abdul El-Sayed all have viable campaigns. Looking in from the outside, the big issue in the race is Israel.
Haley Stevens is "establishment" in the machine sense. She is openly pro-Israel. Not much grassroots support. I expect her to lose barring shenanigans.
Mallory McMorrow is the traditional liberal PMC candidate. Very white woman coded. Backed by literal Anthropic employees. Her public position is skeptical of certain aspects of the US-Israel relationship, but it is clear that she doesn't have deep convictions on the issue.
Abdul El-Sayed is the leftist anti-Israel candidate. As his name suggests, he is an Arab Muslim. He is best known at this point for campaigning with leftist streamer Hasan Piker.
The attempts to cancel El-Sayed for his Israel position and Hasan connections seem to have backfired, as he has catapulted into the lead on Polymarket. What I think is happening here is that Israel is by default a low-salience issue, but if Israel is made into an issue by e.g. a US-involved war in the Middle East or constant media coverage of campaign tactics, then the anti-Israel faction of the Democratic party will simply win because they have an overwhelming numerical advantage among the Democrat base.
Where does El-Sayed fall on other core Democrat principles such as trans rights?
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