site banner
birb_cromble  1d ago (text post)   735 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread

Since a lot of us here have expressed interest in not starving to death in a gutter, I figured I'd start a weekly thread to discuss financial matters.

Ground Rules

  • Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.
  • Keep culture war in the culture war thread. Yes, global events may impact our personal finances, but that does not mean we have to incessantly harp on culture war aspects here. If you are going to discuss it, please stick to the practical impacts of it on an individual level.
  • Be kind. Remember that everyone here comes from different circumstances. We all have different resources available and different risk tolerances.
  • Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Better is better. Celebrate people when they take a step up and work to move their finances in the right direction. Don't flame out because they haven't followed what you consider the optimal path. Everybody has to start somewhere.
5
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Oh, good timing, I just crossed a very large milestone in my portfolio today. A few questions:

  • What do you think the chances are that we are currently in a large (AI related or not AI related) bubble that will pop? It seems like the money printing of the past few years has massive upward pressure on the stock market so I don't know how to unpick the two.
  • I have always been a saver and live fairly frugally. But I am itching to increase my standard of living with some of my invested money. At what number in USD would you personally be comfortable beginning to draw down, say, 4% of your portfolio a year to increase your standard of living sustainably?
  • It seems like I am outpacing the rate of inflation with my investments. For example I have doubled my money in 4 years, whereas I am not paying nearly 2 times as much for gas or groceries or restaurants compared with 2022. And it seems like inflation is much slower at the lower end of prices- for example goods at thrift stores or antique stores seem to be retaining low prices while things like houses and fine art are exploding in valuation. Do you think it's likely to stay this way in the US for a while or do you think the inflation will be coming for lower priced goods as well?
  • Do you think it's too late to buy bitcoin or is it still wise to buy it today? I have only like $2000 worth of bitcoin because I never found it very appealing or interesting but I can see its use in hedging against fiat currency debasement and many people smarter and richer than me are still interested in its success.
  • The older I get, the more I have access to but the less I want. I have already satisfied most of my needs and desires from my youth. How do I generate more desire within myself as I grow older? (I am in my mid thirties if that is relevant.)

What do you think the chances are that we are currently in a large (AI related or not AI related) bubble that will pop? It seems like the money printing of the past few years has massive upward pressure on the stock market so I don't know how to unpick the two.

Between 0 and 1 probability. In other words, who knows. (I think it's not). But this is irrelevant , imho, because the market has gone up so much, and stands to keep going up even more, that even if it were a bubble and does pop, you may still be missing out by not buying now, as no one knows where the top may be. People who thought home prices were overheated in 2013-2014 or waited for lower prices after Covid, were either forced to rent forever, sit on sidelines forever , or buy at a much higher price. If the Nasdaq gains another 30% this year and 100% within 2 years, you would need a pretty big crash to undo just those gains, so we're talking a once in 15-50 year event. I do not like those odds. I would rather just hold my nose and buy, accepting that market is possibly overvalued, but also that I will not get a better price either. Overpay now or regret later.

It seems like I am outpacing the rate of inflation with my investments. For example I have doubled my money in 4 years, whereas I am not paying nearly 2 times as much for gas or groceries or restaurants compared with 2022. And it seems like inflation is much slower at the lower end of prices- for example goods at thrift stores or antique stores seem to be retaining low prices while things like houses and fine art are exploding in valuation. Do you think it's likely to stay this way in the US for a while or do you think the inflation will be coming for lower priced goods as well?

This is why the stock market is so great for wealth creation and inflation hedging, even compared to collectibles, cars, etc. Only MTG & Pokémon cards have outperformed the stock market long term. I am not sure about art--not much liquidity, lumpy markets and possible manipulation.

Do you think it's too late to buy bitcoin or is it still wise to buy it today? I have only like $2000 worth of bitcoin because I never found it very appealing or interesting but I can see its use in hedging against fiat currency debasement and many people smarter and richer than me are still interested in its success.

You're too late by 8 years. Stocks are clearly better.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats