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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   3421 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 11, 2026

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Rubio or Vance remain the favorites for winning the 2028 Presidential election

Taking it by candidate and not by party which has a 60:40 leaning towards Dems is a mistake. The issue here is that Rubio and Vance are considered significantly more likely to be the Republican nominee (64% collectively) than Newsom and Harris (the top two Dem choices at this moment) are expected to be the Dem nominee. (33% chance collectively).

Basically the markets are expecting a Obama/Trump style moment where someone unexpectedly comes in and wins the Dem primary and then goes onto winning the presidency.

I think I take your meaning, but allow me to try and parse this:

The markets are expecting a Obama/Trump style moment where someone unexpectedly comes in

The markets expect that the unexpected will happen. I guess its just a wait and see thing, account for the uncertainty.

And as much as Obama provides good precedent, I think the subsequent years where Hillary and then Biden locked down the nom against upstarts (including Bernie... twice) makes it less likely.

The markets expect that the unexpected will happen. I guess its just a wait and see thing, account for the uncertainty

Yeah. They don't really have an idea who it will be, but Harris and Newsom combined are only 33%. Add AOC and it's 41%.

So basically, it's more likely to be none of the top three candidates than it is to be any of them right now.

Generic Dems always outperform real Dems. People tend to imagine a nice Leslie Knope and then flinch at the inevitable Jean Ralphio.

Generic Dems always outperform real Dems.

That we don't know who the specific real Dem will be in 2028 doesn't change that there will be a specific real Dem in 2028, and thus the polling effect of "Generic Dem vs Generic Republican" doesn't really impact the predictions. They're not predicting generic Dem, they're predicting currently unknown specific Dem who will be dealing with specific Dem issues.

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