What is the deal with these people who are super-successful offline (e.g. Chamath, Marc Andreessen, Elon Musk), but on social media have such mediocre, cringe, or bad opinions, getting easily-verifiable facts wrong or just repeating sale or boring stuff, or digging in when wrong? Why is there such a large disconnect between being so successful in one domain (e.g. creating companies) and the ability to produce good, well-informed opinions online?
My answer: People who are really successful offline tend to be specialists--they find something that works, and then scale or repeat it. People who have "good opinions about a broad range of topics" are generalists, but this does not necesailty lead to large wealth, which typically requires specialization.
Generalists tend to be higher IQ and get bored more easily, seeking novelty, but this comes at the cost mastery at a skill to become wealthy. Becoming a billionaire at running restaurants means knowing everything about the restaurant industry--perhaps not exactly intellectually simulating work--but necessary for success. Specialists can be really smart, but I would say generalists are smarter in the aggregate. There is no "industry person" who is as broadly read about history and other humanists topics as Moldbug, for example, as the ultimate generalist.
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Notes -
distinction without a difference. Having strong half-informed opinions and arguing about them is fun.
If he wanted to do a really good troll he would do something where it's not easy to disprove. A good troll post leaves enough ambiguity. For example, SBF when he said books are inferior to blog posts, which got a bunch of people riled up . https://www.yahoo.com/tech/sam-bankman-fried-once-said-110845327.html
It's not like this can be disproven, yet it's controversial, so it's a great troll. Or Richard Hanania saying that Shakespeare is overrated--again, this is subjective and was a great troll.
Marc's example was getting something basic wrong, doubling down , and looking dumber in the process in trying to dig himself out.
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