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45% of Republicans find him innocent. Which means he absolutely would be innocent in Texas. And it’s likely a much higher rate of not guilty in Republicans who watched the entire 30 minute police interaction who know he did things like saying he couldn’t breathe BEFORE any force was applied or who read the entire medical report and know he had a potentially fatal does of fentanyl in his system. It’s probably close to 95% or even 100% of Republicans who find him innocent.
Like your own study completely supports my position. The 45% of GOP who find him innocent are likely the far more online and active Republicans. The exact people that would heavily pressure a Republican governor to pardon him.
I don't know if there's a term for this sort of fallacy but I see it if often in discussions about blue states vs red states. Basically all states are purple states it's just the degree to which they are purple will differ a little.
In 2024, Texas was 56:42 Trump v Harris.
Minnesota was 47:51 Trump v Harris.
There is not that extreme of a demographic difference when you're selecting twelve jurors basically at random from the population who all have to agree on the guilt.
If you pull twelve balls out of a 47:51 red/blue ball bag, the most likely result is still 6 red and 6 blue balls, with a slight edge towards 7 blue 5 red
This is especially true when you consider that a significant amount of eligible voters also don't show up to vote to begin with! So the actual jury makeup is probably more like 4 red balls, 4 blue balls, and 4 normie balls who are just bored retirees or something. So the only difference between the states really is a slight likelihood nudge towards 3 red, 5 blue, 4 normie balls vs 5 red, 3 blue, 4 normie balls.
Unless the defense side is incredibly incompetent and doesn't use preemptory challenges properly, the makeup of a jury isn't going to just be Democrat sided or just Republican sided people. It's going to be a mix of different idealogies and beliefs, with a healthy bunch of normies and independents who all come to an agreement.
Republicans did judge Derek Chauvin. There were Republicans in both the state and federal jury. They looked at all the evidence in deep detail, listened to expert testimony presented by both sides, listened to the defense's best arguments, and found him guilty.
Pardons do not imply any bit of legal innocence. Contrary to internet myth they also don't apply any acceptance of legal guilt, but he would still have been found guilty even if he later was pardoned.
Think you are lacking experience living in red states and blue states. The loud people in blue states are blue. The loud people in red states are red. With gerrymandering and other means of asserting authority all the political power shifts farther to one side. Judges, prosecutors, etc all shift to one side.
I thought peremptory challenges actually shift the bias farther in one direction. The cities are even more partisan so maybe it’s 75%-25% Dem/GOP. The prosecution can axe any likely republicans while the defense runs out of challenges long before.
You also have to remember at the time Chauvin trial occurred it was very clear that NOT GUILTY = burn the fucking city down. This is not in play for most other trials but in this specific trial it was lose your house or vote guilty.
Also you should almost never cite public opinion polling in any debate. It’s highly unreliable and can be gamed. Took me 2 minutes checking polling and I found 31% of GOP thought he was guilty.
Jury selections are essentially random, the loud people and gerrymandering and etc don't really matter as much to them.
It can but ok let's go off that, 75:25 blue ball vs red ball is still 8 blue balls vs 4 red balls who could find not guilty. And again remember the non voting/independent crowd so it's probably more likely 6 blue, 3 red, 3 normies even in the worst case.
Also remember this happened twice in both state and federal court, so let's say 6 reds and 6 normies total who all looked at it and said "yep he seems guilty beyond a reasonable doubt".
Yeah public opinion polling isn't the best, especially since most people are just being tribal instead of looking at the facts.
Good thing we have juries instead where we take a diverse mix of randomly selected citizens with various beliefs and biases and views, lay out the evidence in high detail for them, give them the best arguments from the prosecution and defense, and have them all come to an agreement.
Between the two cases, that's 24 ordinary citizens, randomly selected, with extremely specific knowledge of the case who listened for days hearing the best arguments the defense legal team could make who all said he was guilty. (Editing now, turns out he pled guilty in the federal case before it even went to trial, I knew he had federal charges but I assumed it went to court as well. Well there we go, 12 found him guilty + own admission in plea).
Maybe society needs to be even lighter on punishing crime in favor of protecting potential innocence. Maybe a single jury size should be 15, or 20, or 30 instead of 12 and 30 people have to all agree on guilt. Or maybe there needs to be even more avenues for convicted criminals to get out. Maybe beyond reasonable doubt of 95% or something should be beyond reasonable doubt of 97% or whatever. That's a fair opinion you can have. I just hope you have it consistently.
FWIW. Still other views on Floyd in the right-wing. Funny I believe that guys an Israeli, but everyone everywhere knows American culture war.
https://x.com/aryehazan/status/2057393196619948353?s=46
The coroners report is in the thread.
I don’t necessarily think it’s fair for me to bring up Floyd to you initial comment on the person probably just being guilty, but it’s high profile so far more familiar with that case. The more partisan/culture war a case is the less likely it is going to fit into your the system works on mundane cases.
Why should I privilege the views of a non American specifically selected on idealogically grounds over the 12 randomly selected ordinary American citizens who apparently spent like two weeks listening to just the testimonies alone who all decided he was guilty beyond a reasonable doubt, plus the other 12 randomly selected ordinary American citizens who also did a similar thing and also all decided he was guilty beyond a reasonable doubt? And don't forget all the appeals courts (including the US supreme court!) who all turned him down.
This comment is especially revealing. The question of Chauvin's innocence in court is not a culture war one, it is a legal one.
His views are representative of the right. Which is why I say in Texas that even if say a leftist Austin jury found him guilty that he would be pardoned in a right controlled state like Texas.
“Chauvin’s innocent in court is a legal one not a culture one”
Sure I agree. I am just pointing out in different legal jurisdiction with different cultures he would be innocent.
Also not an unbiased jury. Jurors have biases based on their culture. In this case hang whitey was their culture.
Bias: https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/photo-of-chauvin-juror-wearing-blm-t-shirt-at-march-raises-questions-of-impartiality-experts-say/
The conservative majority Supreme Court had the option to take the appeal and turn his conviction! We already have high up conservative officials who didn't do this exact thing that you're saying they would definitely do.
Why do you think a jury is made up of 12 people who have to all agree and not 1 then?
Adamiak was convicted of a crime he clearly did not commit, partly under an interpretation of the law not even yet finalized at the time of the 'offense', by a jury. The Conservative Supreme Court didn't care.
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