A valuable rubric for prediction is "people overestimate the change the will happen in a year, but underestimate the change in a decade".
People see that China isn't overtaking the U.S. right now and assume all is well. It is not. China's economy is growing much faster than the U.S. and its natural growth will soon make it at least twice as large as the United States even if they do not escape the middle income trap. China also likely has on the order of 10 times as many people with an IQ over 130 as the U.S.
Nothing needs to change. Natural trajectory already has China far eclipsing the United States within a decade or two. Only a deus ex machina, such as AI or another Mao in China can prevent this.
Another thing that people don't realize is that Chinese military expenditure is practically much greater than the United States. The U.S. headline budget of $800 billion or whatever says more about bloated salaries than it does about how much war materiel can be produced. China greater productive capacity is quickly eroding the advantage of materiel which the U.S. has accumulated over decades. At some point, they will have significant advantages in missiles, armaments, planes, ships, drones, etc... They are wanting only in supplies of raw resources - a situation which they are rapidly improving.
To put on the tinfoil hat, what makes you think that the people in Washington are unaware of China's current trajectory? Beijing protested that the balloon shot down over SC was not a spy balloon but a weather balloon. I am surprised that seemingly nobody has put forth any conspiracy theories about the incident being used to drum up support for a war with China/action over Taiwan. The most I've seen is "the balloon is to distract everyone from the chemical disaster in Ohio."
I suppose nobody's thinking the above because, ironically, China's pseudo-revanchism and the predictable reactions it has to being challenged, combined with its current rise, make it easier to believe that they really did send a spy balloon and that they're trying something, as usual. Never mind that Xi should know that poking the American bear, even with the background noise of Ukraine to supposedly distract it, will probably end the Chinese Century before it even really begins.
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Notes -
...
A valuable rubric for prediction is "people overestimate the change the will happen in a year, but underestimate the change in a decade".
People see that China isn't overtaking the U.S. right now and assume all is well. It is not. China's economy is growing much faster than the U.S. and its natural growth will soon make it at least twice as large as the United States even if they do not escape the middle income trap. China also likely has on the order of 10 times as many people with an IQ over 130 as the U.S.
Nothing needs to change. Natural trajectory already has China far eclipsing the United States within a decade or two. Only a deus ex machina, such as AI or another Mao in China can prevent this.
Another thing that people don't realize is that Chinese military expenditure is practically much greater than the United States. The U.S. headline budget of $800 billion or whatever says more about bloated salaries than it does about how much war materiel can be produced. China greater productive capacity is quickly eroding the advantage of materiel which the U.S. has accumulated over decades. At some point, they will have significant advantages in missiles, armaments, planes, ships, drones, etc... They are wanting only in supplies of raw resources - a situation which they are rapidly improving.
To put on the tinfoil hat, what makes you think that the people in Washington are unaware of China's current trajectory? Beijing protested that the balloon shot down over SC was not a spy balloon but a weather balloon. I am surprised that seemingly nobody has put forth any conspiracy theories about the incident being used to drum up support for a war with China/action over Taiwan. The most I've seen is "the balloon is to distract everyone from the chemical disaster in Ohio."
I suppose nobody's thinking the above because, ironically, China's pseudo-revanchism and the predictable reactions it has to being challenged, combined with its current rise, make it easier to believe that they really did send a spy balloon and that they're trying something, as usual. Never mind that Xi should know that poking the American bear, even with the background noise of Ukraine to supposedly distract it, will probably end the Chinese Century before it even really begins.
Maybe “ending the Chinese century before it even begins” is why the US shot down a weather ballon. 🤷♂️
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