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birb_cromble  10hr ago (text post)   162 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread

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30 year Treasury yields are popping off

The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was last trading more than 3 basis points higher at 5.183%. It briefly hit 5.197% during the session, marking its highest level since July 2007.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield — the key benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — was up 4 basis points to 4.667%. Earlier in the session, it climbed to 4.687%, or its highest level since January 2025

This doesn't seem like a great sign. It does make me wonder what kind of risk premium you'd accept before buying a 30 year right now. My gut feel, given current conditions, is that 5.2% is too low. I might start thinking seriously about it at 6%, but if we hit 6%, I think we'd have enough other problems that I might not have the money to spend on one.

More broadly, I'm getting concerned about stagflation. Inflation is persistently coming in above targets, consumer sentiment is in the shitter, and outside data center construction, the economy has been more or less flat for about six quarters now. Am I being overly pessimistic here?

and outside data center construction, the economy has been more or less flat for about six quarters now.

If you can't beat them join them.

I was watching a Gamers Nexus video ranting about Nvidia abandoning the PC market. He was enraged, and I felt his rage. I like PCs too! I'd like to enjoy building a new one again, with brand new screaming fast parts I'm excited to take for a spin.

Alas, the angrier Steve gets, the more money Nvidia makes, and I've certainly enjoyed my 5000% gains and my new dividend that's over 20% of my initial investment yearly. When your cost basis is $4, a $1 yearly dividend feels insane. I know that's not how you do the math, but it's still wild to think about.

So I'm talking to my wife about that, and how it feels a little wrong to be doing so well off of a company that is acting so against my principles and interest. But damnit, I've got bills to pay, and I'm not gonna be the only chump not getting my bag.

I'm in a weird place with Nvidia. I'm invested in them indirectly through various funds, but I'm getting a little concerned.

In my neck of the woods, you can't buy 2B limestone anymore. It doesn't matter how much money you have, the quarries are completely tapped on supply. They can only sell at the rate they can get it out of the ground. Since you need that for leveling foundations and making concrete, that must be slowing down data center construction. If that's true, and something like 80% or more of Nvidia's revenue is from data center build outs, I worry what even a small to medium hiccup in construction could do. How long could they sit on inventory before investors get antsy?

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