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birb_cromble  10hr ago (text post)   162 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread

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30 year Treasury yields are popping off

The longer-dated 30-year Treasury bond yield was last trading more than 3 basis points higher at 5.183%. It briefly hit 5.197% during the session, marking its highest level since July 2007.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield — the key benchmark for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt — was up 4 basis points to 4.667%. Earlier in the session, it climbed to 4.687%, or its highest level since January 2025

This doesn't seem like a great sign. It does make me wonder what kind of risk premium you'd accept before buying a 30 year right now. My gut feel, given current conditions, is that 5.2% is too low. I might start thinking seriously about it at 6%, but if we hit 6%, I think we'd have enough other problems that I might not have the money to spend on one.

More broadly, I'm getting concerned about stagflation. Inflation is persistently coming in above targets, consumer sentiment is in the shitter, and outside data center construction, the economy has been more or less flat for about six quarters now. Am I being overly pessimistic here?

I wouldn't buy a US 30 year at anything under like 6.5%, too much risk on too long a time horizon. Inflation protected wise I'd be happy to purchase at CPI+2% yearly.

I wish TIPS weren't taxed the way they are. It seems almost perfectly self-defeating

Here in the UK fortunately gilts, inflation protected or not, are CGT free (but coupons on gilts are taxed as income, make it make sense...).

I think we might be talking past each other. I was talking about treasury inflation protected securities.

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