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Does anyone else feel like we're heading for a good old-fashioned, 2008-tier, financial crash? I recall people bringing up the possibility ever since Covid bucks started rolling out, but even though we were due for one, and even though the money printer was going brrrrr, the crash has so far failed to materialize.
At the time, I was of two minds about this. On one hand, all the libertarian theory I used to subscribe to said money-printing => boom, boom => bust. On the other hand, the problem for me was it never felt like a boom, and I think this is changing now. A key feature of the pre-crash boom is "malinvestment"; capital going into often downright deranged projects, that are later abandoned half-finished. Well, I feel like the datacenter craze qualifies, and with the wave of AI IPOs that are coming just as major indices are changing their rules, to allow for these companies' near-instantaneous inclusion (an investment so good, you can't pass up on it. Literally, if you're American), it seems like we're solidly in the "irrational exuberance" phase.
Add this to the list of things I hope I'm wrong about, because if we get a proper crash, the political fallout is going to be massive. The script writes itself: Trump / tech bros / capitalism bad, even more gay race communism now.
To whitepillers: is there an argument for why I'm wrong that doesn't boil down to "you don't get it, chud, it's the New Economy! The Singularity is just around the corner! All the rules are obsolete!"? This argument is verboten, because this is pretty much what people say with every bubble.
To fellow blackpillers: any ideas on how to brace for impact? Any IT guys here old enough to make it through the dotcom bubble? How did you do it? Any advice you would have given your past self?
I've felt that way for about 10 years now, so man I don't trust my judgment on that.
I do think we've drawn out a lot of 'slack' we might have had in the system, between Covid, the Ukraine War, Europe's general implosion, and now the Hormuz/Iran situation. Billions of dollars of fraudulent welfare payments don't exactly help, but at least they're an economic stimulant in the Keynesian view.
So a significant enough shock could definitely send us for a tumble.
For my money, it'll be a serious collapse in global trade that would be the catalyst.
ON THE OTHER HAND, we are energy-rich, and if we build out more nuclear there's virtually no mere economic shock that can send us into a long-term depression.
So I think its fair to keep the debate mostly in the range of "are we due for a market correction that will be relatively short-lived, or a long term depression where growth stagnates for want of any truly productive industries to invest in and an aging population that demands increased consumption spending."
I bought a house in 2016, thinking there was a 50% chance I'd be under water in it.
LOL I bet we're close in age.
The 2008 crash left an indelible mark on me. Doubly so because I was in Florida, a major epicenter for the worst of it.
I viewed the increasing house prices post 2013 as a TRAP. But I was convinced to buy in 2019, and I am still fully mentally prepared for it to crash down to that level or below again.
I still do sincerely think that the stock market is overvalued (maybe specific companies are not). But if you aren't willing to put at least SOME of your long-term money at risk in it, you're objectively missing out. And the U.S. is the only country where the insane growth might be justifiable.
Ironically, owning the house makes me feel significantly more secure because even if I lost my job and my retirement accounts dropped by 50% tomorrow, I'm guaranteed to have a roof over my head for the next year (foreclosures take a LONNNNNNG time to process) which should give me time to figure something out.
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