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Does anyone else feel like we're heading for a good old-fashioned, 2008-tier, financial crash? I recall people bringing up the possibility ever since Covid bucks started rolling out, but even though we were due for one, and even though the money printer was going brrrrr, the crash has so far failed to materialize.
At the time, I was of two minds about this. On one hand, all the libertarian theory I used to subscribe to said money-printing => boom, boom => bust. On the other hand, the problem for me was it never felt like a boom, and I think this is changing now. A key feature of the pre-crash boom is "malinvestment"; capital going into often downright deranged projects, that are later abandoned half-finished. Well, I feel like the datacenter craze qualifies, and with the wave of AI IPOs that are coming just as major indices are changing their rules, to allow for these companies' near-instantaneous inclusion (an investment so good, you can't pass up on it. Literally, if you're American), it seems like we're solidly in the "irrational exuberance" phase.
Add this to the list of things I hope I'm wrong about, because if we get a proper crash, the political fallout is going to be massive. The script writes itself: Trump / tech bros / capitalism bad, even more gay race communism now.
To whitepillers: is there an argument for why I'm wrong that doesn't boil down to "you don't get it, chud, it's the New Economy! The Singularity is just around the corner! All the rules are obsolete!"? This argument is verboten, because this is pretty much what people say with every bubble.
To fellow blackpillers: any ideas on how to brace for impact? Any IT guys here old enough to make it through the dotcom bubble? How did you do it? Any advice you would have given your past self?
I’ve been feeling an oncoming crash for years, and it hasn’t paid off yet. From my COMPLETELY UNSCIENTIFIC, VIBES-ONLY perspective, the market has absorbed all sorts of rate changes and price spikes and geopolitical boondoggles which might have reasonably been expected to presage a crash. But then, if it was obvious, it would be priced in, right?
Speaking of which. The big AI companies are absurdly valued, which is not the same as being incorrectly valued. Pricing the possibility of a market-shattering payoff has historically caused markets to diverge from normal human expectations. This isn’t great, but it’s not inherently disastrous in the same way as, say, the subprime mortgage situation.
It only ends up a bubble if AI plateaus, stops picking up new niches, before debt outpaces investment. This is entirely possible and I don’t know what the leading indicators would be.
If AI expands into any other sector of the economy, it pays off. I suspect this would require a major change in robotics (to cover skilled trades, etc.) or ethics (to allow violence). Some of these routes are extremely goddamn dystopian, but at least they aren’t bubbles, right?
That said, AI isn’t the only source of optimistic IPOs. There is a lot of interest in manufacturing and defense investment. Onshoring stuff which might become contentious. I could believe that this is its own bubble; people want to believe that manufacturing will spring up. If they are underestimating the cost of local improvements, or overestimating the reliability of the current administration, there’s potential for some serious disappointment.
Ha. Norm MacDonald continues to be relevant.
Besides, if the techbros are revealed as delusional, if all the slush funds and gold plating in the country can’t stave off a crash…what are we supposed to think? Sorry, Trump was just holding the hot potato, blame the wreckers?
I don't think that's fair. I'm not trying to make you feel sympathy for Trump, I'm trying to say what comes after him will be worse. See for example the thread after Labour won the most recent election in the UK, and compare to how eit panned out.
The busness cycle is usually beyond any president, so partially yes, but it's clear he also made many unforced errors here.
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