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In the long term, maybe, but in the short term, I don't know that this is bad for Anthropic. Mythos first entered the conversation with the press release about all the vulnerabilities it found and how they're too scared to release the model to the public. This prompted more criticism than these companies normally receive, with several commentators pointing out how the claims were exaggerated and that they were just repeats of similar claims about products that were released and didn't end up being dangerous at all. So now they have the US government saying that this product is too dangerous for the public. Never mind that this is the same government that unsuccessfully tried to tag Anthropic as security risk because they didn't like purported limitations on the use of their software, but never mind that. Also, these names are a little too on the nose. Mythos suggests a product that's meant to inspire but doesn't actually exist. Fable suggests something mean to impart a moral lesson but is likewise nonexistent. The only similarly named product I can think of is the Mitsubishi Mirage, which feels like a similar thought exercise in how much you can cut from a vehicle and still be permitted to import it into the US.
Sure. This administration is great at making huge announcements which then fall apart in the court system because it turns out that not everything Trump feels he should have the authority to do is something he can actually do. Getting banned by the USG and then getting the ban reversed in court would definitely add to the hype.
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I haven’t been able to figure out what authority the feds are using here, but if it’s ITAR it gets rough quick.
I have no idea either but it probably doesn't matter since I doubt Anthropic will litigate it. Then again, it suspiciously comes the day after the SpaceX IPO, and with Anthropic gunning for an IPO of their own, it seriously hurts their business prospects if the US government is throttling what products they can release. The industry has already spent a ton of money on a technology that hasn't proven any ability to make money as it is, and it doesn't bode well for the industry if they spend ungodly sums only for their products to be deemed a security risk and effectively unmarketable. On the third hand, maybe this is just payback for the whole DoD thing.
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It's still a real hassle getting something as simple as a scope for a hunting rifle from the US to Canada -- which IIRC is ITAR (the hassle is on the US side, and there were some big fines for exporters before people started paying attention), and has been the case for a number of years.
Certainly an actual AGI would be a bigger threat to US national security than a nice cheap scope from SFRC, so I guess it makes sense?
This is more a problem with US exporters not bothering to keep up to date on ITAR reforms (there have been a few that reclassified most of the stuff into a much laxer category) than anything else, though.
Perhaps something an AI could solve for them, but their market is large enough that they don't have to care.
Eh, there is a new-ish 'de minimus' exemption on paperwork for lots of things, but scopes are not those things AFAIK.
Many companies don't want to mess with even the low-value exemption in any case due to people getting hammered with huge fines in the past -- but without the exemption it's pretty onerous AIUI -- to get an export permit for a scope you need to (IIRC) fill out various convoluted permit forms on the US side, which also demand import authorization from the Canadian side -- which is not a thing that Canada cares about, but that makes it worse because there's nobody in charge of processing the forms that the US side is demanding!
There are people in Canada with associated FFLs in the US that will do it for a fee -- but that fee is like $300 bucks, which gives you some idea of the hassles involved. (again, pretty much all on the US export side -- Canada doesn't really make it too hard to import actual guns even, so long as they are otherwise in compliance with our somewhat Byzantine rules around whether they are legal to have at all)
Actually militarily useful technology is right out though, even if it has relevant consumer applications -- any sort of night vision would be a common example. And an AGI that lived up to the hype would certainly be better for harming America than some shitty NVGs...
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I don't think the full info is out yet. Axios has one news article with a bit more (found via Zvi), but no specific law is named.
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