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Notes -
Statement on the US government directive to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5.
A few immediate thoughts:
For one strain of doomer, this is a good thing: the USG showing willingness to directly intervene and cut down the addressable market for capability-pushing models reduces economic incentives to push the frontier at all costs and slows down the race dynamic. Correspondingly, it's going to be a nightmare for the markets: the AI boom is driven by the idea that frontier models are going to be replacing a significant chunk of global labor, and obviously now this is significantly less likely now that frontier models are going to be stuck in Uncle Sam's basement.
For another strain of doomer, this is a horrible thing: really this was fairly clear even with the DOD conflict, but now control of AI is now very firmly a direct White House concern - the fate of the planet and/or the universe is in the end going to be decided by DC bureaucrats and not SF tech nerds.
Companies, especially non-US companies, are going to be rushing to the doors to move their AI workflows off closed-source and onto self-hosted models, another blow for the AI market thesis - the business continuity risks of Anthropic's demonstrated willingness to silently cripple models and USG's demonstrated willingness to now arbitrarily cut off access are simply going to be too much.
I have nothing new to say about the ban itself, or to be more accurate, I can't be arsed to.
I did use Fable from the moment it was available, quite intensively, and I can promise you that it's a feel-the-AGI moment. Is it an AGI? Nope. But it only took a little use to realize that it was clearly ahead of the pack, and we're only a small n number of iterations away. The only reason I'm not updating my timelines harder is because something like this is priced in.
Speaking of price, Fable tempts me to buy a Max plan. That is not something even a large amount of tokens for Opus 4.6 and later managed. I'll do so if this kerfuffle sorts itself out, but until then, using Opus 4.8 feels like a Flowers for Algernon moment.
I'm curious to hear your Fable use cases. In the brief time it was available, I didn't get to do much. The only project I had on my plate was a simple web application, which it pumped it in a way that felt no better/worse than if I had Opus. What sort of task would you recommend for Fable that you wouldn't for Opus?
Fable is much more of a 'do it right the first time' model than Opus. I had three pages of instructions for a feature. It just does what I ask, gets it all right, then tests it without me asking and tells me about the balancing! Opus could've done all that too if I cut up the instructions a bit but there'd be some minor glitches and I'd have to go over and fix it.
Better planner too. I was planning out a project with Opus 4.6 a few months ago, never really started it. Tried the same prompt with Fable and it come up with a few strokes of brilliance Opus never found. When making the initial demonstrator, Opus made a crap sandbox that needed a couple of rounds of debugging to even work and it wasn't very satisfactory. So I tried with Fable. Fable made a much nicer, prettier sandbox with more content that worked the first time and had all these things already set up to test. it puts in more care and effort as well as being smarter.
Better writer too. It is to Opus as Opus is to Sonnet.
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