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Because they've proven the concept that they can effectively close the strait of Hormuz and cripple gulf oil production with a collection of low-end weapon systems that can't be intercepted reliably enough to counter, and which they can keep producing and deploying despite significant efforts to stop them. KDR is basically irrelevant next to the vastly larger problem of massively asymmetrical requirements for achieving strategic success.
The USA post-Vietnam
It depends what’s in the deal but pipeline construction should ramp up now. There were reasons to not do it before and let Iran have the close the Straight card because then they didn’t need the build nukes card. That seems over now.
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Near as I can figure, the total cost of materiel lost to the Vietnamese was roughly <5% of the total defense budget at the time.
Even if we grant the U.S. being fully defeated in the war itself, I dunno if 'trounced' is the right way to describe it in that context.
I mean, Afghanistan was also a loss for the U.S. in the end but again, not really a trouncing.
Genuinely, Germany's example is the surprising one because they took massive casualties and material loss, then 20 years later had a fully industrialized, cutting edge military force which outperformed all their immediate neighbors'.
And the U.S. has shown that they can shrug this off far, far easier than pretty much all of Europe.
And can enforce its own blockade as a retaliatory step too.
and, as mentioned, can pop their leadership structure at will.
Iran has no winning hand here. Maybe they have a hand that forestalls an actual invasion indefinitely. But they also seem to be constitutionally incapable of 'surrendering' so I have little doubt they're happy to posture and claim whatever victories they can.
Post-Vietnam, the US was in the humiliating position of having lost what was essentially a conventional war against a much weaker, smaller adversary. This prompted a number of reforms to how the US military organized and operated, leading into the absolutely crushing dominance of the Gulf War (though, ironically, most of what the US did wouldn't have helped in Vietnam).
Then why is Trump folding?
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Ok, so why is Iran not getting better terms out of the deal?
Once we put aside mass media speculation, what do we actually know about Iran's capabilities in the gulf? They claimed to be able to shut down the gulf, they threatened a few ships, and this spooked the insurance companies enough to bring traffic to a stop. But America claimed that Iran did not meaningfully control the Straits at all.
Iran can threaten gulf oil traffic, but America can blockade Iran, bomb them, and intercept all their counterattacks. It also appears that Iran cannot meaningfully threaten gulf oil that has been rerouted around the Straits, and they cannot threaten global oil traffic at all. This has lead to some global disruptions for sure, but not the worst-case scenarios that were predicted confidently a few months ago. So what can Iran do?
If Iran has as much control over the Straits as you suggest, and we can't counter them effectively as you suggest, why are they agreeing to a peace deal?
Better terms than what? Billions (possibly hundreds of billions) in tribute from their enemies and the ability to do it all again whenever they want?
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