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PaperclipPerfector  14hr ago (text post)   659 thread views

Friday Fun Thread for June 26, 2026

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Soccer fans, something that has bugged me for years: how does soccer manage to combine low scoring with highly predictable outcomes?

In most similar sports, low scoring and low margin of victory correlate with unpredictability. But soccer is the most predictable sport in terms of finishes, very rarely have we seen real surprises at the top of the table or at the end of a major cup. It's the same few teams winning the big 5 leagues, the UCL, the world cup.

Across every other sport, one score games are so close to a coinflip in luck that much of analystics consists in softening or removing one score games from the data. In soccer a one score margin is completely normal, two scores is high, three a murder.

I think it's because of the length of tournaments. Soccer has huge upset potential in single games, we've seen that already at the World Cup, but that variance gets evened out over the course of a campaign. Winning a competitive domestic league is a grueling slog, even though you do occasionally see a Leicester or an invincible Leverkusen (I'd dispute "most predictable sport", given some of the surprises we've seen, but maybe you have stats I don't). A knockout tournament also goes through a lot of rounds, including two-legged ties where you need to keep a lead across both matches and potentially extra time.

It's also worth noting that, for fans of most teams, the ones that aren't at the top of the money league, it's not really about the trophy, because seeing a trophy is a once-in-a-lifetime experience - it's about getting into Europe or avoiding relegation, or, for national teams, making it to the World Cup and getting into the knockouts.

the ones that aren't at the top of the money league, it's not really about the trophy,

As an American fan of the sport who is homeless and doesn't have this investment that's always fascinating to me. I follow the sports teams of my birth city through thick and thin, but I'm not happy if it is a down year (or cough cough decades). Soccer fans seem totally down win or lose. Getting the title isn't the thing. That's nice.

That's the beauty of Pro/Rel, everyone has a peer to look up to and a peer to look down on. The clubs that are in danger of relegation have near-peer clubs around them that are a league below them, so just by scoring enough draws to stay in the top flight (or 2nd etc) you've achieved superiority to someone. Where in America a last place team is just a last place team. This is helped in Europe by density, the biggest distance in the EPL is less than the distance between Philly and Pittsburgh, which are in-state rivals in the USA, so no one is ever really bereft of top flight football (which is why pro/rel wouldn't work in the USA). This is also why I support instituting a modified version of the Gold System for draft picks.

Yeah it doesn't work for America but by golly does it work well for England. I wish more Europeans got to experience and enjoy both models but in most countries Football has nearly all the mind share (which admittedly is a large part of how the whole thing works).

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