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birb_cromble  3d ago (text post)   482 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread - 2027-07-04

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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Is making consistent money on Kalshi/polymarket plausible for mottizens? I'm up about 40% on Kalshi/polymarket after 9 worldcup games and I want to know if I can make this a decent side hustle or if I'm going to lose all my money and be made fun of for thinking I could gamble in income. After worldcup will it work on other sports? What about crypto?

The betting market on top tier Soccer games is very very very efficient. The sheer liquidity sunk into Kalshi/Polymarket has provided some EV spots this tournament where weight of public money has adjusted things past expectations, but if you're actively taking prices on Soccer based on your own opinions and not arbitrage you are probably gonna blow up in the medium-term at the latest.

I'm profitable on top tier soccer betting over a decade or so. Only slightly though. But around +25% ROI during this world cup. The trick is to just do nothing in all the cases where you don't have your edge.

This world cup has been pretty brutal for bookmakers with lots of high-profile favorite wins + highest profile player scores goals kinda outcomes. Potentially you've found an edge but having had relationships with some of the biggest dick syndicates in the world who are scraping out 1-2% over time with immense swings I'd probably lean that you're lucky moreso than good.

Did you read the part where I said a decade?

How many bets is that? Thousands? The same edge has held through massive swings in how odds are calculated in that period?

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