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A common argument in trans discourse is "who are you to say someone isn't the gender he says he is? No one would know better than the person himself."
I've spent years operating on the opposite assumption about myself, that I'm a bad judge of myself. Furthermore, everyone has dissatisfaction with themselves and the world. Personally, I flip-flop, get dissatisfied about my life and direction, but most people tell me "that's life, get over it". But if I had a trans-like belief that "I know what I am, but the world won't let me be it," with tons of people telling me over and over that I'm right and there are evil people out to get me, I think I'd have latched onto it hard. Not because it's necessarily true, though. It converts vague restlessness into a clear enemy and a fixed identity, and that provides false stability and obsession for a feeling of listlessness.
So I don't buy that conviction is evidence of accuracy. If anything, the more invested I am in a belief about my identity, the less I honestly should trust it. I think it's at least possible that having an outside view is more accurate than one's own personal beliefs.
Is having skin in the game a reason to trust your self-read more, or less?
Most things are a negotiation between you, reality, and the rest of society.
You can have limitless belief in the fact that you're smart. You can truly believe it in the deepest recesses of your soul. You can proclaim yourself a genius and fully believe you aren't lying. But if you have an IQ of 85... are you a genius?
Or for a more subjective example, you can truly believe that you're the most gorgeous creature on planet Earth. You can be completely in love with yourself, and carry yourself with limitless confidence. But if nobody else is actually attracted to you... are you actually attractive? (This works in reverse, too, you can believe you're hideous, but if everyone wants to fuck you, nobody is going to believe you saying you're ugly.)
You can't give yourself a nickname, you can't decide that you're cool. Some things have to be bestowed by others. Most things require tacit agreements from others.
Trans activists actually do recognise this, which is why they push so hard on enforcing your validation of their beliefs. A trans activist that truly believed that internal ID was all that mattered would not care what pronouns others used.
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