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A common argument in trans discourse is "who are you to say someone isn't the gender he says he is? No one would know better than the person himself."
I've spent years operating on the opposite assumption about myself, that I'm a bad judge of myself. Furthermore, everyone has dissatisfaction with themselves and the world. Personally, I flip-flop, get dissatisfied about my life and direction, but most people tell me "that's life, get over it". But if I had a trans-like belief that "I know what I am, but the world won't let me be it," with tons of people telling me over and over that I'm right and there are evil people out to get me, I think I'd have latched onto it hard. Not because it's necessarily true, though. It converts vague restlessness into a clear enemy and a fixed identity, and that provides false stability and obsession for a feeling of listlessness.
So I don't buy that conviction is evidence of accuracy. If anything, the more invested I am in a belief about my identity, the less I honestly should trust it. I think it's at least possible that having an outside view is more accurate than one's own personal beliefs.
Is having skin in the game a reason to trust your self-read more, or less?
Let's talk about your penis. How do you feel about it on a scale from 1 to 10 where
1 is "An appendage I associate with great fun and joy especially when it's very hard and having an orgasm and ejaculating inside of a female"
and 10 is more like "A fleshy ugly cockroach-like thing sticking out of my body that I would cut off at the first opportunity if I could find and afford a doctor willing to do it"
Do you find yourself flip flopping much between those? Do you think you should trust your belief less if you are firmly at #1 rather than scoring your penis a more even and sober #5?
There are a lot of narcissistic tourists to trans stuff that cloudy the discourse considerably but there are honest to goodness people that are at #10 and have been for as long as they can remember.
Well, I certainly don't think 1 is in absolute and completely direct conflict with 10. I do think penises are ugly and weird, and I envy the smooth sleek female form sometimes.
When I was going through puberty and slightly before, and a bit afterward too, I had beliefs and hatreds about my body and penis, that I know now to be completely untrue, that I thought would mean that I would never find anyone who could love me in my life. Things changed for me eventually, but there were times when my feelings in that regard were stably different from what they are now. I've been firmly wrong before, and so has everyone.
As for "as long as they can remember", I don't take that at face value either. I'd have said the same thing at the time about my own beliefs. What counts as "long enough" to trust it? At very minimum, I don't think a belief formed before adulthood is a reliable basis for a permanent decision, whatever the belief is.
Also, I don't think I ever said that I trust someone's beliefs about himself specifically if they are more in the middle of a spectrum. I simply don't trust anyone's beliefs about himself.
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