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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   21021 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 6, 2026

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Iran war picks up again

The US said it launched a fresh wave of strikes on over 100 targets in Iran after Tehran struck a ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one month after the MOU to end the conflict.

Iran said it closed the waterway until further notice and warned of a severe response to US aggression. And within hours of the US strikes, Iran said they had hit a US base in Jordan, while the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain intercepted missiles and drones from Iran.

And Israel keeps striking southern Lebanon, despite the MOU.

Setting aside the many rounds of grifts talks, there's something to be said about great power adjacent warfare in 2026. Like Afghanistan and Ukraine, Iran is looking like this distinctive category of forever conflicts. Protracted, managed stalemates where neither side is willing to commit the resources and manpower towards a decisive victory, yet neither is prepared to accept political humiliation by surrendering. In Ukraine, Russia lacks the conventional strength for total conquest, while the West supplies enough aid to prevent collapse but not enough for a full on Ukrainian breakthrough.

I actually bought the last round of 'talks'. Now I'm blackpilled, we might be lucky if we get out of this in less than 20 years.

I still predict boots on the ground eventually. Trump does not have the temperament or neural plasticity to change course.

I doubt it. He values American lives. Causing collapse of Iran is more plausible. Depopulated country has no resources to pursue nuclear program.

I think there’s a small chance he uses nuclear weapons.

No need to use nuclear weapons. Just need to change tactics. He has access to some of the best twisted mentats of the CIA - they could devise a way to wage the war in such a way that to break the spirit and maximize sectarian strife.

A tactic of announcing targets and delivering on them every day - like today we kill Revolutionary Guard personnel, tomorrow we set fires to oil wells, next day power plants. Tell in advance where they will be but choose such locations that whatever forces Iran could scramble couldn't get there in time. And hit them if they try.

Your goals moves from military victory to creating a total feeling of helplessness. Take the tactics pimps use to break the girls and scale them to country size.

Iran is too big to invade - but this also means it is too big to secure.

That’s what they’re doing now and it isn’t working. Everything military is hardened under rock. You can make the civilian population suffer but it won’t stop the shooting. And the gulf states and Burgerland have a lot more shiny things in the region to break than Iran does.

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