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PaperclipPerfector  7d ago (text post)   22593 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 6, 2026

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Iran war picks up again

The US said it launched a fresh wave of strikes on over 100 targets in Iran after Tehran struck a ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz, one month after the MOU to end the conflict.

Iran said it closed the waterway until further notice and warned of a severe response to US aggression. And within hours of the US strikes, Iran said they had hit a US base in Jordan, while the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain intercepted missiles and drones from Iran.

And Israel keeps striking southern Lebanon, despite the MOU.

Setting aside the many rounds of grifts talks, there's something to be said about great power adjacent warfare in 2026. Like Afghanistan and Ukraine, Iran is looking like this distinctive category of forever conflicts. Protracted, managed stalemates where neither side is willing to commit the resources and manpower towards a decisive victory, yet neither is prepared to accept political humiliation by surrendering. In Ukraine, Russia lacks the conventional strength for total conquest, while the West supplies enough aid to prevent collapse but not enough for a full on Ukrainian breakthrough.

I actually bought the last round of 'talks'. Now I'm blackpilled, we might be lucky if we get out of this in less than 20 years.

The frustrating thing to me is that this is all so tied up in American electoral politics.

I'm firmly of the opinion that we should escalate the war in Iran until we win it. The cost in treasure and lives would be far less than in Afghanistan or Iraq and for a much more worthy cause, and many of the people I know in the military would absolutely love to get in there.

Unfortunately, there are midterms coming up! The US is largely incapable of pursuing long-term thinking (at least in the open), because any short-term sacrifice will be parlayed into an election loss for the party in power and the long-term plan will be discarded or reversed.

It seems to me that Trump actually wants to win this war. That's why the MOU and the negotiations have largely been a sham. They are not intended to work. They are intended to pacify people until the votes are in. Trump went for a cease-fire because it would lower gas prices, end of story, that's literally all most voters know or care about the war. And after the midterms pass, I expect him to use the overwhelming might of the US military to violently pursue his goals once again, and more power to him.

I don't have specific analysis to back this up, it's just how the overall picture looks to me.

much more worthy cause

What exactly is this worthy cause? Consolidating control of the sandbox? Greater Israel? Something else?

What exactly is this worthy cause? Consolidating control of the sandbox? Greater Israel? Something else?

Yes, at least according to large part of USG decision makers, the Holy Land is what is it all about. Something hard to really grok for aspiring rationalist types, but this is really the best explanation for this mess.

If it was really all about oil, you would not see even one tenth of part of IRL Middle Eastern drama - US would just do business with anyone willing to pump and sell the black goo. See, for example, Africa - Nigeria, Angola, Congo etc are as riven with intractable conflicts, but The Free World(TM) is not tempted to intervene.

See recently deceased Lindsey Graham as typical example

There is no one to say Kaddish for Lindsey Graham. He had no wife. He had no children. He dedicated his entire life, mostly for us. We are his children.

Lindsey loved the Jews more than the Jews loved themselves. He traveled the world, from country to country, and fought like a lion for the State of Israel. He wasn't even Jewish himself. He simply believed with all his heart, with all his might, that it was the right thing to do.

Absurd and theologically confused of course, but I’m curious what /u/FlailingAce meant.

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