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Given the kind of patriotic preening Shakes routinely engages in, his unconditional and triumphant support for yet another war of aggression in the Middle East, his constant tendency to claim US victory under virtually any circumstances including the now-defunct MoU (his theory of victory seems to reduce to "We fucked them up! We fucked them up so bad"), and considering the brainrotted knee-jerk condemnation of everything China that you and many other posters routinely engage in, I'm most certainly not convinced that Dase is anywhere near as shameless as half of the posters here.
It's almost as if US hawks have no barometer for how insane they look to the rest of the world, and consider any China-bullishness as "ingratiation" because nobody could possibly ever like that country for any reason at all.
Which is still vastly more self-aware and humble than what Daes engages in on this topic, or what we see from the "America lost" faction. My god, it's like the Black Knight from Monty Python.
I actually rather like China. I don't trust them as a nation, but I do have a certain fondness. I just don't take it seriously when someone does, er, literally exactly what you're accusing Shakes of doing - shameless, jingoistic boosterism that doesn't even try to make a serious analysis of their situation. Which is easy because of how opaque they are, compared to the ten million words we spill on this forum alone wrangling over the issues and struggles America is facing, based on enormous quantities of reasonably transparent data and reporting.
Because it comes off as projection. Screaming "America lost" when what you actually mean is something more like "Iran is still holding on while their military and economy are in shambles after a few months of casual love taps, and this is arguably a failure to attain all strategic goals of the war" sounds genuinely insane. It sounds like you're trying to manifest a conclusion via sheer memery, rather than making any effort to understand - particularly when even the most jingoistic Americans (Shakes) are making meaningful admissions.
It just comes off as shameless, low-trust rhetoric, like watching some underclass defectbot try to scam a quokka.
In that case, kindly point to a comment that Dase has made regarding his China-boosterism that doesn't include any "serious analysis of their situation", and is situated in the context of a thread where he hasn't made any serious analysis. That would help prove your charge against him. I follow the guy, and while he can be needlessly inflammatory I have to say his comments are routinely more well-informed than the America First crowd here. And on Xitter there are a good number of tweets where he criticises China (I think he has requested that his account not be shared here though), so I don't think your model of him as a jingoistic unconditional booster is accurate.
This is far more true of Shakes regarding America, who talks about the war in cartoon-villain ways like "Now I advance the argument that Bestern Civilization is better than the Third world, and better than Iran, so I support our moral claims against theirs etc. etc. etc. etc." and "It's good to destroy evil and it's evil to destroy good" which just translates to an unconditional support of America against its enemies regardless of what they do and how many second- or third-order effects it may have. In spite of how inflammatory Dase can be I don't think he has said anything to the effect of "China blowing up its evil, disgusting enemies is Good Actually and I support it unconditionally". It is low-quality tribalism par excellence, it is disturbing, and it is the farthest thing from "self-aware and humble" I can think of.
Also where did you get the idea that Dase was living in China? Since many of your comments appear to imply he currently does, I'd like to see where that was indicated. I am genuinely curious FWIW.
Okay, what "meaningful admissions" is Shakes making? He's doing exactly what you're accusing the "America lost" crowd of doing - claiming "America won" when what he actually means is "America caused damage to Iran without achieving many of their larger strategic goals in the timeframe they expected, has likely burned through a significant portion of their interceptors, and is now trying to find a way out of a costly war it can't back out from without losing face and ceding ground it's not willing to cede". The idea that this constitutes "winning" is quite ridiculous; they might win yet (and they may not), but Shakes keeps proclaiming victory every time there is any shadow of an agreement and when these agreements fall apart he predicts victory any time soon. It's tiresome and it's like gleefully proclaiming that Libya was a victory in any meaningful sense because the US fucked them up so bad. It is not a reasonable metric through which to measure foreign policy, and if wanton destruction is the sole endgoal of all your engagements you should expect pushback from those who don't revel in turning countries into Somalia.
This was in response to an argument that America isn't part of Western Civilization, so it can't credibly claim any moral superiority over Iran. The point I was making is that this is snobby provincialism, call America "Western" call it "Bestern" call it whatever it doesn't matter.
This was in response to a claim of moral relativism that criticized American attempts to be moral in war as a pretention. My argument is that this is not a mere pretention, America has a righteous claim to morality over Iran, it's actually ridiculous to put America and a terrorist Islamic regime on the same moral plane.
(In fairness to @quiet_NaN I believe his argument was more in the vein that justifying war as moral causes a problem in practical geopolitics. I chose to surface this facet of his argument for criticism because we have already argued extensively about whether America is winning. And I consider it far more pernicious that many are treating America and Iran as equally just. I think this is ridiculous and deserves ridicule: we live in the free world, we can only have these debates because of the freedoms we have in the West, and too many people have bought into IRGC propaganda or, worse, a lukewarm indifference to any notion of good and evil.)
I make no apologies for actually believing in good and evil and using my sense of them to advance my arguments. I think anyone not doing this, out of a misguided sense of sophistication, is kidding themselves.
No my argument has been and remains that America won the war already in every meaningful sense. We destroyed Iran's military-industrial complex, we destroyed their nuclear program, we alienated them from their neighbors and potential allies, we won. And everyone keeps proclaiming that Iran has actually won because they refuse to surrender and they can still control the straits. To me this is like proclaiming that the Super Bowl isn't over when the Packers are up 50 points at halftime because the opposing team of George Bailey High still has the heart of the cards. It's over. So I keep repeating, every time it comes up, that Iran lost in every meaningful way, and this final trump card that they can control the strait keeps turning out to not be true.
I feel increasingly vindicated. The goalposts of the war critics keep moving. It was once confidently predicted that Iran would sink American ships, and toll the strait, and never give up its nuclear program. It was confidently predicted that at least Iran would threaten the strait, and significant concessions would have to be made. Now it's clear that a lot of traffic can still transit the strait, because the American military is that much more powerful than the Iranian military, and I'm starting to hear that maybe the Americans started winning recently, who can really say?
I know you think I've taken leave of my senses. But I think it's you who have taken leave of your senses. America is justified to fight Iran and America is winning against Iran. I have made the same argument, consistently, for months, because I believe I am right and I fully expect to be vindicated.
I am aware what these quotes were in response to. However, it's hard to ignore the original answer you gave, that both commenters were in turn responding to:
"Western Civilization is better than the Third World and America is better than Iran. Even for all our flaws America at her best is and can be a force for good. Putting America and Iran on the same moral plane is actually a form of weakness because -- well, if it's all the same anyways who cares if Iran conquers? Who cares if barbarism or civilization prevails? It's all predicated on violence anyways right? Well no, I assert that the ends towards which I apply violence are actually more moral than theirs. I do prefer my civilization to theirs. I'm not a neutral third-party observer, I'm not a nihilist. My values are better than theirs and it's justified for me to use violence to defend what's mine."
I don't think I'm misrepresenting you at all.
Yes, exactly the outline of the argument I was criticising. America is good, Iran is evil, the violence America inflicts on Iran is justified and the violence Iran inflicts on America is unjustified. Nevermind that both these states include many people who have pretty much nothing to do with the regime in question, and the regime falling apart often means power vacuums, significant instability in the region, massive civil war and other super moral outcomes. It's like collateral doesn't exist to you: the Iranian regime is Evil and therefore Evil must be destroyed. Nevermind that the Iranian regime might be the best of the options currently available to the Iranians, nevermind that American-style Democracy, Whiskey and Sexy is probably not feasible in much of the Middle East as it stands.
You are raining hellfire down on a people, causing instability and destruction in a region which isn't even in your immediate geopolitical sphere that frankly you shouldn't even be involved in, and claiming it is perfectly moral, that as the "good guys" you are entitled to use violence against your enemies. There isn't even a figleaf of pretence that you're "bringing stability to the region" (it may well destabilise it further and is already doing so); you're basking and preening and cheering on the destruction of a country.
No, I'm not a moral relativist; I do believe in good and evil. I wouldn't be able to believe that this war and its supporters are evil otherwise.
And the fact that this is your goal says everything anyone needs to know about your "theory" of military victory. Not only that, I think you're underestimating costs for the US and just how much Iran is holding on, and your argument ignores significant uncertainties around much of the data. That being said your interceptors have been burned through hugely whereas Iranian missile stockpiles as of May were estimated to be approximately still 70% of their prewar total, and they have regained access to 90% of their underground missile storage and launch facilities. Granted it is possible these are conservative overestimates, but I would not be so quick to declare Iran dead in the water yet; the idea that Iran is obviously out of options and hanging on by a thread is wishful thinking and they may well have a good amount of freedom of action left if they want to keep causing pain.
X to doubt. The strait is currently incredibly operationally disrupted and the idea that it's "clear" that "a lot" of traffic is transiting is capeshit Amerikaposting of the highest order. Only six ships went through the strait on Sunday, and I don't know about you but that doesn't sound anywhere close to a lot to me. There are multiple estimates of this, and all show significantly and catastrophically reduced shipping through the strait; as long as that is the case the supply shocks will continue. I frankly do not know where you are getting your information diet from, but you're very clearly ignoring any data that contradicts your extremely jingoistic cries of victory.
I'm sure the more you say this, the more true it will become.
"Based." What else am I supposed to believe?
This is just the problem of war, there were lots of nice civilians in Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan and the Soviet Union too, a lot of bystanders and innocents are made to suffer and that's unfortunate and we all hope the suffering can be minimized. So what's your point? Warmed-over pacifism does not actually stress me. I still believe that Iran acquiring nukes would be evil, and it's good for America to stop this.
I have never argued that regime change is necessary and neither has Trump. I think it causes great confusion for war critics when they imagine that the Iranian regime surviving is proof that Iran is winning.
See, there we are. This isn't an impassionate debate about whether America is winning the war or not, it's just a debate about good and evil. You have your views and I have mine. So don't criticize me for proclaiming on good and evil when your argument just as fundamentally rests on your own morals.
It sounds like your assessment of the war is just believing pro-IRGC sources and doubting pro-America sources.
Once upon a time it was asserted that Iran controlled the strait and no ships were passing through at all. I consider this pretty decent progress toward accepting my views. Give it time for America to wipe out the last of Iran's capabilities and even more ships will start making the transit.
The point is that the costs of such engagements (lost human lives, further destabilisation of the region) should make war a last resort, employed only once all diplomatic action has failed and when there is strong proof of a present threat. These conditions have not been met in the case of the Iran war, where diplomacy was still a possible course of action and there is no evidence they were producing warheads. I do not believe that this war was started for prudent reasons at all; the US and Israel really just appear to have attacked because they thought Iran was showing signs of weakness and they saw it as a great opportunity.
I am not arguing that regime change was the goal, I’m arguing that even if you don't intend to do so you can still badly destabilise and destroy the region. Regarding the goals of the war, I think the instigators of the war had many different objectives; Netanyahu in particular certainly wanted regime change. Trump was very wishy-washy on this, but many of his statements suggest regime change was at least one goal among others.
"Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered. Don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America's help. But you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight." Unlike how you’ve portrayed it, he did not say it was “not essential” and alongside what Dase posted about Unconditional Surrender, it sure sounds like regime change was on the menu.
The official narrative surrounding regime change is really quite funny, to be honest. The administration's later statements are this contradictory mix of “Regime change was never our goal, but also it if was we achieved it”, somewhat akin to “It’s not happening and if it is it’s good”. Trump wants to back out at this point, and in spite of the fact that he advocated the idea of regime change early on he has now reneged on the idea just in case he needs to cut his losses and save face, since that goal is a lot more definite and less open-ended than “depleting missile stocks” and “harming Iranian military-industrial complex” - which frankly is not that meaningful of a war goal in itself; in any war you’re virtually always guaranteed to deplete your enemy’s war resources to some degree. Ultimately what you have to consider is the cost-benefit of the engagement; does the loss of your interceptors and other war resources (which limits your ability to project power elsewhere) outweigh the benefit of hampering the combat-readiness of the Iranian regime, and is it still worth it once you factor in the economic shocks and regional instability the whole affair caused? That kind of sober analysis is what strategic victory is about, it’s not some chimp-brained goal solely oriented around fucking your enemies up.
No shit lol, I thought that was clear the second I said your moral system was disturbing. There is no way to discuss morality without having some of your own moral priors to begin with. And I never criticised you simply for making proclamations on good and evil, my criticism is that you believe all action taken against The Evil is automatically justified, regardless of the collateral damage it may cause. Just because you don’t like something and believe it is evil doesn’t mean it automatically becomes moral or high-minded for you to utilise any violence you want to achieve your aims.
US intelligence is now a pro-IRGC source, got it.
Besides, you’ve been the one trumpeting American victory uncritically, you solely believe “pro-America sources” and ignore “pro-IRGC sources” whereas I have been relatively cautious in my assessments, so for you to accuse me of that is projection to the highest degree. Your confidence that Iranian capabilities have been completely decimated should not be anywhere near as high as it is.
And there you go again proclaiming victory based on nothing but your own jingoistic fanfictions. Six ships going through, with massive supply chain disruptions still ongoing, is not something to be gleeful about.
EDIT: wording
Yes, that’s how war works, do you even hear yourself? We win if Iran surrenders and one of the ways that can happen is if their government falls.
Perhaps the syntax is confusing: What I mean is that the official narrative is currently trying to play both sides; on the one hand, we are supposed to believe that regime change was never the goal, on the other, regime change has already been achieved. The impressive degree of hedging from the current administration is rather amusing, and suggests to me the US is really trying to save face.
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