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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   269 thread views

Transnational Thursday for July 30, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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It's clear that the Spanish government is not inclined to do anything about it. But I wonder - what is the plan on the invaders' side? I mean ok, they took over Ceuta, then what? Are they going to settle there? I don't think local economy is able to accommodate doubling the population - so what's next? Emergency budget grants from Spain to put them all on state welfare rolls? Resettling them in Spain mainland? Just doing nothing and having them take care of getting to the mainland by whatever means they find, or not? Just pressuring Spaniards into leaving and taking over, with Morocco declaring they must extend their sovereignty there for humanitarian reasons? I'm not sure, what's the endgame here?

ok, they took over Ceuta, then what? Are they going to settle there? I don't think local economy is able to accommodate doubling the population - so what's next?

Literally just take a ferry to the mainland?

Ferrying 60 thousand people would take a while I imagine? Do they have any checkpoints at the entrance/exit? Do they even have money to pay for the tickets, or ferry company is going to transit them for free?

Also, doesn't seem to be happening: https://cadenaser.com/andalucia/2026/07/31/la-crisis-migratoria-de-ceuta-no-afecta-a-la-linea-maritima-con-algeciras-radio-algeciras/ (they could be lying of course but I think somebody would notice tens of thousands of people suddenly showing up in Algeciras?)

Ferrying 60 thousand people would take a while I imagine?

Sure.

Do they have any checkpoints at the entrance/exit?

Once in Ceuta, you're already on the territory of Spain, unless this is some weird special case, there are no checkpoints while travelling inside the country, or even to anywhere within the EU.

Do they even have money to pay for the tickets

Ferry tickets aren't that expensive, and even Syrian refugees from 2015 had significant amounts (to the tune of $10K) that they'd pay to human smugglers.

Also, doesn't seem to be happening

Sure, it might not pan out this way, but the plan is far from crazy.

I also just thought of another obvious play - cross the border, and cry "asylum". It will take years before they kick you out, and they might even relocate you to the mainland on their own dime.

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