Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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The existence of Spain’s small African enclaves is usually the sort of fact that shows up in a trivia contest, but two of them—Ceuta and Melilla—have been in the news this week. Earlier this month, the Supreme Court of Spain ruled (1) (2) that Spain’s immigration law, which allows border security to turn away illegal immigrants who climb over the border fences between Morocco and those two enclaves, doesn’t allow the state to immediately turn away illegal immigrants who cross the border via the water. This has naturally led to a massive increase in illegal crossings, with hundreds of Moroccans, Algerians, and other North Africans swarming the border over the last few weeks. Earlier today, the border “totally collapsed” as thousands more migrants—mostly young men—began dismantling and passing through the border fences. The local authorities asked the national government to declare a state of emergency, which they declined to do, instead opting to send 60 additional soldiers to secure the border. Despite the pretty obvious link between the Supreme Court decision and the sudden increase in illegal crossings, Spanish authorities have declared themselves mystified as to the cause of the crisis.
In additional international impacts, Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni has threatened to suspend Italy’s open-border agreement with Spain “to defend our borders and ensure the safety of our citizens,” and the White House has publicly criticized Spain’s handling of the issue.
It's clear that the Spanish government is not inclined to do anything about it. But I wonder - what is the plan on the invaders' side? I mean ok, they took over Ceuta, then what? Are they going to settle there? I don't think local economy is able to accommodate doubling the population - so what's next? Emergency budget grants from Spain to put them all on state welfare rolls? Resettling them in Spain mainland? Just doing nothing and having them take care of getting to the mainland by whatever means they find, or not? Just pressuring Spaniards into leaving and taking over, with Morocco declaring they must extend their sovereignty there for humanitarian reasons? I'm not sure, what's the endgame here?
Literally just take a ferry to the mainland?
Ferrying 60 thousand people would take a while I imagine? Do they have any checkpoints at the entrance/exit? Do they even have money to pay for the tickets, or ferry company is going to transit them for free?
Also, doesn't seem to be happening: https://cadenaser.com/andalucia/2026/07/31/la-crisis-migratoria-de-ceuta-no-afecta-a-la-linea-maritima-con-algeciras-radio-algeciras/ (they could be lying of course but I think somebody would notice tens of thousands of people suddenly showing up in Algeciras?)
Sure.
Once in Ceuta, you're already on the territory of Spain, unless this is some weird special case, there are no checkpoints while travelling inside the country, or even to anywhere within the EU.
Ferry tickets aren't that expensive, and even Syrian refugees from 2015 had significant amounts (to the tune of $10K) that they'd pay to human smugglers.
Sure, it might not pan out this way, but the plan is far from crazy.
I also just thought of another obvious play - cross the border, and cry "asylum". It will take years before they kick you out, and they might even relocate you to the mainland on their own dime.
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