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Do you all think there is a niche for independent writing these days? Could a Scott-like or similar figure rise out of the ashes of the blogosphere and have success, say, on Substack? As far as I can tell, the platform has been quite effective in attracting a small horde of Gen-Z amateur anthropologists, mainly of the ironic post-feminist variety, though many of them have pre-existing credentials that boosted their writing from the get-go. How do you view the current landscape for aspiring authors?
If you can write as good as Sam Kriss, you will enjoy the same success as Sam Kriss. Algorithms make recognition of ability easy, efficient, and reliable. No more languishing in obscurity. The problem is that algorithms also select for cheap, shallow thrills in addition to hardcore skill and talent, so most aspiring writers take the easy route of producing trash for the masses (see KulakRevolt and Scott Alexander) rather than more significant aesthetic works.
Overall, the market for writing may have shrunk as well, as the attention economy has gotten hyper saturated. It may follow the general trend we're seeing of entry and midlevel opportunities drying up as things become more concentrated at the highest levels. That's probably also the work of efficient markets.
Mm, this really isn't true. If you write like Sam Kriss into the void, you'll enjoy approximately zero organic success. You need to both write like Sam, and market like him, to enjoy success like him. There are platforms that will drive viewership organically to your writing. Most of them are places to read fiction for free. If you want to write blogs, you're gonna need to market yourself.
If you write to his level on Substack, the algorithm's going to pick you up and you're going to get a ton of subscribers and even enough paid subscribers to make a decent income. I'd also count his ability to market himself and manage how he comes across as a personality as part of his writer's skillset, especially in how it directly informs the content of his writing. But there's much less necessary hustle than you make it seem. Putting quality stuff on Substack is alone sufficient to gain some measure of success.
Substack's algorithm doesn't work like that, unless you drive viewership from other platforms you're gonna get almost zero visibility.
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