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Pardon me since we did this just so soon but, yes, I'm ready to go again:
Iran has lost significant control of the Strait of Hormuz
Despite Iranian claims to control the Strait and shut down shipping, ships are increasingly making the passage. Ships are turning off transponders (eluding both the Iranians and OSInt twitter prose) and trusting in American protection. And the smaller number of ships making the passage often belies that these ships are carrying more than previous ships did before them:
It appears that America's strategy is working: Iran is increasingly hemmed in, unable to break the American blockade, threatened by inflation and sanctions, dwindling military supplies rendering its threats on the Straits weaker and weaker.
One of the theories invoked last time we had this discussion was that countries like UAE are in fact paying bribes to Iran, meaning that Iran in fact is collecting tolls on the Strait and it's really Trump that's impotent. How's that going?
UAE Cuts Economic Ties With Iran After Missiles Target Territory
Iran's strategy of bombing neutral nations, or declaring that neutral nations are actually working in concert with the Americans and therefore are justifiable targets, appears not to be making it any allies. It appears, in fact, to be more isolated than ever as more countries come around to the American line of thinking.
According to Al Jazeera, however, Iran denies bombing UAE.
So, how do we reconcile these claims? I would humbly suggest that Iran is less and less in control of itself, with political battles between hardliners and those who want to surrender, inflation, a puppet Supreme Leader who has not been seen in public since his supposed inauguration, and a military increasingly acting without any central command or foresight. I would suggest, in fact, that Iran has lost, which remains the case even if the Iranian regime does not fall and continues to make absurd pronouncements that they are actually winning.
Speaking of that...
Trump Responds as Iran Says U.S. Must Meet These Six Demands If Strait of Hormuz Is to Reopen
It looks like Iran is no closer to surrendering than they were a few months ago. And their public-facing demands are clearly non-starters -- unless anyone wants to argue that America is about to eminently surrender and accept these terms -- although it's not clear why they would. Because, at this point, here is where we are at:
Iran is not going to toll the straits. Iran cannot toll the straits. This is as powerful as they're going to get, it's all downhill from here, and it's not very powerful for them. Iran is never going to get nuclear weapons. Iran is never going to break the American blockade. Iran is never going to push America out of the Gulf. They have two options: surrender, or not. And it doesn't matter if they choose not to surrender, because America can continue doing this indefinitely. If anything, the longer this goes on, the cheaper it becomes as Iran's power wanes, more ships transit the gulf, more oil bypasses the Gulf entirely, and the easier it becomes for America to patrol.
What's changed recently? Well, not much. This is just the continuation of what's been going on all along. When America launched this war it significantly crippled Iran's ability to respond, and Iran's threat to control the Strait of Hormuz, which sounded so impressive at first, has turned more and more hollow. I don't expect this argument to be any more popular than the last time I made it, but I want to note again that the predictions that Iran was winning or would win have not been born out, have never been born out. Iran has lost, whether they surrender or not, whether people believe their blustery threats or not.
This is only going to become more and more obvious.
They can just wait until Congress forces Trump to give up, or a new President takes over and gives up. I think that's their strategy. They're still keeping pressure on by attacking ships in the strait and killing crewmen, though the remaining shipping seems to be accepting the danger as a cost of doing business.
I see none of these victories in Iraq. Also the strategic reserve is still being drawn down, suggesting an even shorter time limit for Trump's actions. Iran can win a war of attrition, because as an ironclad autocracy they don't have to worry about political realities. And they have 90 million citizens, probably 80 million of whom could die before they lost the ability to wage war.
Iron autocracies have to worry about political realities all the time. It’s one of their defining features.
I guess what you mean is that Iran specifically can suffer indefinitely. I’m not sure why this would be the case; I think this is magical thinking — see also:
It doesn’t work like that at all, this is absurd. It’s almost impressive that you are imagining that Iran could lose tens of millions of people, and call that a win.
How many Iranians would have to die before Iran wouldn't be able to shoot at ships in the Strait any more? I claim the answer is "almost all of them".
Iran is shooting at ships in the Strait right now and it doesn’t seem to be winning the war for them. It’s the only card they have to play and it’s not working.
"Not working" how? The alternative viewpoint is that shooting at the Strait is literally thing we care about, the one thing we want them to stop doing, and so long as they get to keep doing it then we're losing.
“Iran still hasn’t given up” is not really much of an argument. Besides, their navy is depleted, their drones are depleted, their missiles are depleted. They pose less of a threat to ships than they ever did, which is why ships are now crossing the gulf. Give it a few more months and they won’t even be able to do that.
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