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Nothing. I think nothing will happen.
The frog will boil a little more, but as long as the crime rate keeps creeping up 1% per month instead of 5000% per day, people will just... get robbed more. As long as the electrical brownouts keep extending 1% per month instead of 5000% per day, people will just... adapt to doing their cooking in advance rather than on demand.
When I was in South Africa I noticed a lot of private security stickers on people's houses and plenty of people had generators to make up for the power outages. I'm not sure how affordable either of these are for the average middle class South African, but with access to those things you are somewhat more sheltered from the decline. For people who can afford these things the streets will get less safe and doing business will become more of a hassle, but you can still pick where you travel and where you do your shopping.
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So you think a state can completely fail, and a country with a very heterogenous ethnic composition but that's about 70% black, at least will still somehow keep being peaceful and won't devolve into conditions resembling a civil war?
What kind of civil war? Wars involving organized armies with "front lines" and uniformed combatants who follow the orders of politically-oriented hierarchies, and engage in organized "battles" are actually quite rare - particularly so in Africa. Do I think there will be a lot of tribal raiding? That people will cluster together in defensible mottes and skirmish in the bailey that is the rest of the country? Sure. But in order for the bailey to be worth anything, it can't be so bad there that no-one can farm it. Certain minimal levels of productivity will be allowed to remain, because if anyone looks like they might be behaving so badly that the bailey will be ruined, everyone else will gang up on them as hostis humani generis. And because the "legitimate" governmental structures are part of that bailey (e.g. trade, SEOs, access to international credit and markets, intergovernmental aid and relations, etc.), they'll be fought-over too in lieu of groups officially splitting off or declaring a new state or anything like that.
..you know, I think you're overestimating the rationality of people in general.
If you're going to lose access to something because of a defeat, burning it to deny it to the enemy is something most ethnics are ready to do.
If tragedy of the commons happens in peaceful conditions, do you think it is less likely to happen in conditions of endemic ethnic strife ?
The tragedy of the commons is about the slow devouring of a resource no-one wants to sacrifice to upkeep. Im not aware of anywhere in the fact pattern that anyone maliciously destroys the common so others can't have it.
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