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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   16484 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 24, 2026

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Bloomberg: Goldman Says Gulf Oil Flows Two-Thirds of Prewar Level

Oil flows from the Persian Gulf have recovered to around two-thirds of pre-war levels, limiting the Iran war’s impact on global crude prices, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Total exports of crude and oil products from the region have risen to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day, helped by higher crossings through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in a note. That’s still 7 to 8 million barrels below pre-conflict levels, but well above a trough of 5 million to 6 million barrels a day in March, they said.

A lot of ships are still making the crossing dark with transponders turned off but the trend is clear. Iran’s (supposed) leverage over the strait is basically nullified, oil is passing through despite Iranian proclamations. Independent analysts now agree with what the US government was saying weeks ago, that millions of barrels are passing through the strait under American auspices.

US CENTCOM agrees, putting out this statement that the US has escorted a few thousand ships through the Gulf, carrying through three-quarters of a billion barrels of oil over the past few months.

What changed?

Axios: "That sucker is open": U.S. gains the upper hand in the battle for Hormuz

Zoom in: After the MOU fell apart, the military worked to reopen the strait unilaterally. The effort included several elements:

  • Together with the United Arab Emirates, a U.S. military task force started guiding ships through the southern channel of the strait while giving them air cover and intercepting Iranian drone and cruise missile attacks.

  • A two-week U.S. bombing campaign significantly undercut the IRGC's capacity to attack ships crossing the strait.

  • A mine-sweeping operation involved Navy divers, Navy SEALs, underwater and surface drones, and private contractors to detect and neutralize the mines.

  • A blockade of Iranian ports was restored.

The US has apparently de-mined the Straits of Hormuz, although, interestingly, there don’t seem to have been many mines in the first place!

More than 200 mine-like objects have been swept from the main lane of the strait. U.S. officials say only 11 of them were actual mines and just a few were properly deployed.

It seems as though Iran’s capacities to threaten ship traffic the Strait were severely degraded by US military action, but that Iran was successfully able to convince news reporters and insurance companies that it could target ships.

For instance, Brady Sullivan at CNBC says

As I reported on @CNBC over a month ago, shipowners told me many “mines” we decoys … some were actually just inflated trash bags ostensibly made to seem like Hormuz was swimming with mines.

Meanwhile, Reuters: Pipelines and ports: Iran war spurs Gulf infrastructure investment

DUBAI, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The Iran war's redrawing of the global trade map is forcing Gulf nations to retool their investment play book, ploughing capital into infrastructure, from energy pipelines to ports, to weather the fallout from the conflict.

The war has highlighted the Gulf's overreliance on the Strait of Hormuz, previously a chokepoint for 20% of global oil flows ‌but also subject for decades to Iranian threats of disruption.

Not only has Iran lost control over the Straits, but Gulf states are building new pipelines to reroute oil around the Straits so that Iran can never threaten them again.

And how does it look inside Iran?

WSJ: Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran

Iranians rushed to buy fuel and food this week, signaling mounting economic pressure as the Trump administration’s threat to tighten sanctions sparked fears of deeper shortages and pain.

Small demonstrations by labor unions—which had all but disappeared during the war—are popping up across the country. Oil workers, pensioners and teachers have gathered to complain about the declining currency and rising cost of living.

————

Some might remember Trump’s infamous comments on this subject some months ago:

Q. And what's your backup plan?

The President. Excuse?

Q. What's your backup plan if the—there's no deal to open the Strait?

The President. The—you don't need a backup plan. We have—the military is defeated. Their military is gone. They have—you know, we've degraded just about everything. They have very few missiles. They have very little manufacturing capability. We've hit them hard. Our military is amazing——

The Shakes take: Iran will never toll the straits, Iran will never have nuclear weapons, Trump was right about everything, a lot of people who believed Iranian claims are looking very, increasingly, increasingly!, foolish.

Goldman is extrapolating from Kpler data with the assumption that Kpler’s estimates are artificially low. Goldman is assuming: because Kpler’s estimates from months ago were later revised to be higher, this means that their estimates this week should also be revised higher. This assumption is speculative and IMO unwarranted. Kpler’s data from months ago was revised because AIS-off transfers were relatively new, but since then they have been tracking crossings by other means, like with satellites. Kpler has not announced in any of their publications the belief there is a large amount of dark shipping through the strait which they haven’t been able to count; they can find ships before and after they pass through even if the passing itself is dark. Maybe there is something more happening (how would anyone know but a guy on the shores with binoculars), but it’s telling that Kpler has never mentioned such a prospect to anyone or in any publication, as far as I can tell. If someone has access to the full Goldman report, that would be cool to check why they actually think it’s warranted to revise the Kpler data upward.

Iran and Oman recently agreed in principle on a route in which ships pass through Iranian waters, only barely passing through Omani waters. The Iran-Oman agreement bans US warships. There continues to be ships struck in the strait. Kpler has only been able to confirm transits through Iranian waters recently. The authoritative information is not looking good.

The Iran-Oman agreement bans US warships.

If you are reading @coffee_enjoyer's comment without clicking through on the links, you might have been under the impression that this "authoritative information" was based on a done deal, the details attested to by both sides. In fact it is based on an interview with a member of Iran's foreign ministry about a deal that has not been signed.

Iran and Oman recently agreed in principle on a route in which ships pass through Iranian waters, only barely passing through Omani waters.

False. The image you posted shows routes published months ago and there is zero evidence that those routes are related current negotiations.

The Iran-Oman agreement bans US warships.

According to Iranian authorities, known for pants on fire lies on countless occasions.

There continues to be ships struck in the strait.

I would like to point out that your link has zero connection with your claim. sorry I got my links mixed up

It’s the same route according to a Bloomberg journalist reporting on Gharibabadi’s interview, and the same graphic was used in Bloomberg reporting as of two days ago, a report written by the same journalist.

According to Iranian authorities

And WH refuses to respond about it… to Fox News of all outlets.

known for pants on fire lies on countless occasions.

Is that even true? Has anyone compared the number of false statements by our President vs by official Iranian channels?

your link has zero connection with your claim.

So, who do you think struck the Kuwaiti tanker near Omani waters? The ghost of Ahura Mazda?

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