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PaperclipPerfector  9d ago (text post)   23861 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 24, 2026

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you will just change the win conditions.

Four months ago you wrote:

As events play out even today, we know that Iran can and will rebuild, even after losing most of its military capability. And it's still capable of firing missiles at its neighbors, it's still got oil money which will still go to Hezballah and the Houthis, et al, and as for tolling the Strait of Hormuz, let's just say it seems that what the US is saying and what Iran is saying are two very different stories.

Iran is out of money, is running out of missiles, and certainly isn’t tolling the straits if the Americans are getting ships through.

A month ago you sarcastically wrote:

So.. the Straits of Hormuz are actually open and Iran is just talking shit? There is no threat to shipping, nobody is paying tolls, insurance rates are not being jacked up, oil prices are not being affected, a US military presence is not necessary because the Iranian military no longer exists, and this is all fake news, we can go home and declare victory and ignore anything Iran says about shipping?

Can I say now that the Iranian military threatening ships was fake news? Does that at least look plausible when the mines are fake and the ships are passing through? Because I really think if you are going to work yourself up into high dudgeon about how crazy I am you have to actually be right.

Man. "High dudgeon" now. Where do you people get this stuff?

No, you cannot say that the Iranian military threatening ships is fake news when ships are only passing through because of the presence of the US navy. Clearly we cannot pack up and go home yet, so nothing I said one month or four months ago is wrong, and you're doing that thing where, when pressed on a variety of assertions, you ignore all but one and change definitions.

I would, in fact, like us to "win", though I was and am against the war because I have yet to see how it's going to benefit us. You, like Trump, are promising many things, the best things, the most winning things, we will win so hard we'll be tired of it, and yet we're still spending and spending without an ROI, and you've redefined "Iran is defeated and no longer a threat" to "Iran can't do anything (except launch missiles at its neighbors) as long as we keep our carrier group in the area."

I don't care if Iran is broke and out of missiles if we're just doing this again in a few years. If you at least pointed to how this exercise will intimidate China or put us in a better position to counter China and Russia, I could see some value there, but the opposite seems to be true. So you may not be impressed by my demanding to know how this benefits me, but since I'm a taxpayer and I vote I think it's a fair question, that for all your insistence that "war makes us richer" you have not answered except with Trumpisms.

Man. "High dudgeon" now. Where do you people get this stuff?

“You people”? “Where do I get this stuff?” Do you have any argument beyond being rude and nasty?

Strait traffic is 2/3rds of pre-war normal, I think this is substantial evidence that war critics were wrong. I think a lot of war critics are uninterested in the possibility. But Iran won’t ever control the Strait or acquire nuclear weapons. It was easy and cheap when everyone said it would be hard. And Trump was right to do it.

and you're doing that thing where, when pressed on a variety of assertions, you ignore all but one and change definitions.

My argument is extremely consistent and instead of interacting with it you seem to just be looking for an excuse to act righteous.

But Iran won’t ever control the Strait or acquire nuclear weapons.

Iran is still there. They still have agency. Yes the US smashed their regular forces, and inconvenienced their nuclear program, and damaged their economy, and there is traffic in the strait. All well and good. But Iran is still there, and they still have agency, and as long as that remains the case the US has a mortal enemy that it neither took out of the picture nor subdued. The US does have the upper hand, doubtless, but it's expensive, it requires a lot of attention and effort to maintain, and it will only become harder as Iran continues to explore avenues for subverting American nonproliferation measures.

The US is strong, is powerful, is clearly the military victor, and yet news of Iran's permanent and lasting defeat are exaggerated and premature.

and it will only become harder as Iran continues to explore avenues for subverting American nonproliferation measures.

It will become easier as Iran is weaker. They will either have to come to the negotiating table, adopt ever more expensive workarounds they can’t afford, or collapse.

and yet news of Iran's permanent and lasting defeat are exaggerated and premature.

Well nothing is permanent but Iran is at America’s mercy and not the other way around.

We'll see. Maybe you're right. I'm certainly no expert. But Iran seems to perform more like Afghanistan than like Venezuela or Iraq.

“You people”? “Where do I get this stuff?” Do you have any argument beyond being rude and nasty?

I have posted complete arguments that you are responding to. "You people" are the ones who project things like "high dudgeon" and "angry" onto calm responses. You continuously accuse me of being angry, "rude and nasty" not because I have been rude and nasty, but because you're upset that someone is arguing with you and throwing personal attacks makes you feel as if you have a moral upper hand.

Strait traffic is 2/3rds of pre-war normal, I think this is substantial evidence that war critics were wrong. I think a lot of war critics are uninterested in the possibility. But Iran won’t ever control the Strait or acquire nuclear weapons. It was easy and cheap when everyone said it would be hard. And Trump was right to do it.

Yes, you keep asserting this, ignoring that "traffic at 2/3 pre-war levels" is not a victory condition. Critics who point this out are not uninterested in the possibility, they are asking you to justify your claims.

My argument is extremely consistent and instead of interacting with it you seem to just be looking for an excuse to act righteous.

I don't know what to do with this much itony and lack of self-awareness. I'll give you "consistent" in the sense that yes, you repeat the same thing over and over with increasing belligerence.

This is not really an argument, you are just trying to point and laugh at me and use the approval of the audience to feel as though you have one. This is especially puzzling because the progress from limited traffic in the straits to current levels is very good evidence in favor of my position. I might be willing to respect the fact that your position is more complicated than just assessing how much Iran is capable of threatening the American position. But I don’t think you can repeat my own views to me in terms that I would understand. For that reason, I don’t think this conversation is worth continuing.

This is not really an argument, you are just trying to point and laugh at me and use the approval of the audience to feel as though you have one.

This is quite tiresome. The easiest way for you to get updoots is to tell me off. "The audience" loves it. The last thing I expect when arguing with anyone here is applause from the crowd. If you are feeling piled on, consider why, in this place of all places, hardly a progressive or anti-Trump stronghold, you're having a hard time making a persuasive case.

This is especially puzzling because the progress from limited traffic in the straits to current levels is very good evidence in favor of my position.

Your position is that the war is good for us and is proceeding favorably, and your evidence is that things aren't quite as bad now as when the war began.

Making this argument while accusing me of having no argument makes me suspect your defensiveness is perhaps a little niggle of self-doubt?

I might be willing to respect the fact that your position is more complicated than just assessing how much Iran is capable of threatening the American position.

I have told you this repeatedly. Iran's ability to threaten the American position is not at all the most important consideration here.

But I don’t think you can repeat my own views to me in terms that I would understand. For that reason, I don’t think this conversation is worth continuing

That's fine, but when you drop in next week to declare triumphally again that Trump is right about everything, the war is going great, and it's totally been good for America, you will likely face the same skepticism and questions.

Your position is that the war is good for us and is proceeding favorably, and your evidence is that things aren't quite as bad now as when the war began.

This is ridiculous. We destroyed the army and navy of a regional power that has been fighting us for generations and the big consequence everyone predicted they would impose on us has failed to materialize. This is as big a win as a war can be.

Cool. They're defeated, so we can stop spending blood and treasure on them, bask in a post-war victory, and reap the economic and political rewards you say are due imminently, without worrying what Iran or their proxies will do next year, or the year after that, or years from now. Right? That's what you're saying, right?

This is probably what will actually happen (because an Iran with no military reshapes the Middle East in America’s favor), and the fact that Iran can’t meaningfully threaten traffic in the Strait is extremely good evidence in favor of this.

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