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Dead forum?
Today in AI news, OpenAI has reportedly released GPT-6 Astra. Rumors on X suggests that it scores 99% on Arc-AGI-3, meaning that the benchmark is essentially dead now. For comparison, Fable only scored 30%. Does this mean AGI is here? Many are saying that it is. Color me skeptical, but its getting harder and harder to find concrete tests that AI cannot pass. The god of the gaps gets smaller.
Many intelligenct people have important things to say about this. But what do the 84 year old communists think? Bernie Sanders today has introduced legislation calling for a ban on superintelligence with a 20 year prison term for attempted superintelligence. He also wants (shocked Pikachu) a government regulatory agency. Although he mumbles something about international cooperation, its clear that China will not be subject to these rules so it solves nothing.
I will give him credit for at least recognizing the importance of the issue.
We could be entering a world of unimaginable change. And, given the political systems in place in the US and China, the midwives of that changes will be those on the cusp of senility.
I don't know what any of these eval scores mean. I no longer have the ability to intuitively "feel" how much more intelligent each iterative model release is. I don't know how to code. I don't know how to do graduate-level math. These models have been smarter than me for quite some time.
As someone who uses these models to code every day, I also don't intuitively feel the jump from model to model. I suspect the people who pop out of the woodwork to say there's a huge difference are mostly just disingenuous engagement farmers at this point, with the occasional normal user who just happened to have a specific niche use-case that randomly got big improvements from one model.
Though I will say that I can still feel the difference in the long term. The models today are a step up in terms of coding compared to the models from a year ago, though many issues around context length and basic computer usage still persist.
I'm surprised people aren't humble bragging more about how their work is so fucking heady and sophisticated that they have no choice but to pay a premium for Fable 5.1 all of the time and even being forced to use 5.0 would delay completion of the Dyson sphere by years.
There was a time circa early 2025 when the good models were something like ChatGPT-o3 while the bad/free models were ChatGPT-4o mini, where the former was a reasoning model while the latter wasn't. In that case you could really tell the difference like it was night and day. But yeah, nowadays everything is good enough that I doubt people would be able to tell between one model or another without using them both for weeks or months. The fact I don't hear my coworkers or other SWEs on the internet complaining about needing the latest and greatest is another indication that the models mostly blur together now.
Maybe this is a niche but I've been working on a compiler project for 3 months now. I've been mostly using Opus but it'll get stuck once in awhile and fall repeatedly to make progress but switching to Fable breaks the logjam. I would leave it on Fable but it exhausts limits too fast.
For the majority of coding tasks I have, Opus is fine.
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