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There are effects. Every white collar person I know is working order of magnitude less.
This is why it is so hard to measure. AI is absolutely revolutionary but in some amusing twist the majority of the value it generates is non monetarily
I really think this depends on what you are doing. For instance work that primarily involves relationships and interaction in meatspace? Unchanged. Physicians? Unchanged.
Ambient scribes are now common but they are of very poor quality, and in some specialities only replace low paid labor (ex: ED) instead of reducing work load. Poor choice for progress notes and admission notes, unnecessary for procedure notes, really the only thing AI helps with is hospital courses even then the edit process is going to be key because the reliability isn't there.
I should really do an effort post on this, but medicine is noticing and attempting to address never-skilling, mis-skilling and deskilling, which will absolutely be a problem in professional domains in the future (and is already a problem in education).
I agree with OP - yes we've seen some amazing feats but translators and cars still exist, both of which were promised to be replaced years and years ago.
Real medicine is not white collar work. I can assure you that your administrators and HR are slacking like never before.
I disagree but only on the grounds that they were never doing anything before.
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Are they actually working less (starting work at 11 instead of 9, leaving at 2 instead of 5 or 6) or are they just doing (or ‘generating’) more to fill in the space? The thing about a lot of white collar work is that in substantial part it was already pretty fake (a consultant’s 10 page deck from 1985 became a 600 page deck in 2023 because research/word processing/powerpoint got easier, but they’re still about equally useful), so AI just changes the provenance of the bullshit.
I am not sure they are working less, but they are definitely slacking more and having more unproductive time working 9 to 5.
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I’m with the lefties that working hours should decrease to start matching increased productivity, with less demand for more luxuries vs more free time, especially with robotics improving and promising to further improve productivity in blue-collar jobs.
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