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birb_cromble  5d ago (text post)   716 thread views

Qeekly Finance Thread - 2026-09-19

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

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Why I don't invest in energy, Europe, and especially European energy. They embrace poverty on an almost spiritual level.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/18/eu-europe-fuel-prices-calls-windfall-tax-energy-firms

European governments have discussed imposing a bloc-wide windfall tax on energy companies, as near-record fuel and gas prices pile pressure on leaders desperate to contain mounting public discontent and the challenge of the far right.

With elections due next year in eight EU countries including France, Italy, Spain and Poland, leaders are scrambling to head off the potential fallout from what analysts have warned could be one of the continent’s biggest energy shocks in decades.

Germany’s finance minister, Lars Klingbeil, called on ‌the European Commission at a meeting of EU finance ministers in Dublin on Friday to propose possible ways to tax what he described as the excessive profits of oil companies.

"Several member states have been calling for models for a long time,” Klingbeil said, demanding proposals by next month. “People can see how oil companies are exploiting the situation, overcharging and significantly increasing their profits.”

Okay, actually I do invest in Norwegian oil tankers, but don't tell anyone.

Crazy policies like this sometimes make it very good to invest in the exact industry affected. Oil has long been like this where GOP lets them drill more and Dems less but the restriction on the supply side of a commodity makes the price go up and unlimited drilling often leads to bankruptcy.

Some would call this rent seeking. Real estate often has the same characteristic where you want supply limited.

Windfall taxes change the game though.

It means that in a bust cycle you lose money. But in a boom cycle they cap how much you can make. The gains go to the welfare state, the losses are paid by you personally. And no one will shed a tear because you are just an "evil, rich, oil company".

Here's a company with high exposure to European natural gas. Notice how their stock price is down by 70% over the last 10 years despite extraordinary prices in the underlying commodity. That's what windfall taxes do. They create a shortage while making sure that no one profits from that shortage. Because, in Europe, they want to make sure that no one gets rich, even when they provide a valuable service. Crab bucket mentality at its worst.

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