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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   10096 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 28, 2026

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Bloomberg: JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels

Crude oil flows from the Middle East are returning toward pre-war levels despite continued risks to shipping, according to separate estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,” JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in a Sept. 29 note. That’s “a remarkable recovery for a region still at war,” although it’s been uneven, they said.

Shipments of crude oil have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while flows of products such as diesel and gasoline were at 3 million barrels a day, or 58%, according to JPMorgan.

Oil is passing coming through the Middle East again, at essentially pre-war levels. Some of this is from oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, and some of this is from oil transiting the Strait under American protection.

Flows through Hormuz have almost “returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, led primarily by Saudi Arabia,” JPMorgan said. “But higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry’s increasing ability to operate under sustained risk.”

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said oil exports from the Persian Gulf — including so-called dark flows moved clandestinely — had recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the last week, a level in line with the 2025 average.

Diesel and gasoline are still stymied, but, mostly, because Iranian exports are being blockaded by the US.

“We note a divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers,” Goldman said. “Saudi estimated exports more than doubled in September and rose above their 2025 average.”

But other Gulf States are increasing their own exports to compensate for the missing Iranian piece.

It appears that the Iranians are not capable of stopping exports from flowing through the Straits, and so oil exports are returning to normal.

Meanwhile, Iran seemingly wants to end the war, although none dare call it "surrender":

New York Times: Iran Proposes 7-Day Plan to End War

Iran’s foreign minister said Thursday that Tehran had proposed to Washington a seven-day plan to cease hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and then begin comprehensive talks on his country’s nuclear program.

Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, told reporters at a press briefing at the United Nations General Assembly that the proposal closely mirrored the commitments laid out in a so-called memorandum of understanding that was struck between the United States and Iran in June but quickly unraveled.

He said Iran was ready to begin putting the plan into effect as soon as Washington agreed to it.

“We have introduced a plan to the United States through the intermediators that if certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz would be open on the end of the seventh day and talks would restart,” Mr. Araghchi said.

He said “it would be better,” if a deal was reached before the U.S. midterm elections.

Iran wants, essentially, to return to something close to June's MOU, except on a faster timetable. Iran agrees to "reopen" the Straits in exchange for getting its confiscated $12 Billion, an end of the sanctions and blockade, and then to open discussions as to the future of its nuclear program.

Contrary to expectations that Iran is biding its time in hopes that Democrats will retake Congress, Iran says that it would prefer to reach a deal before the midterms.

Trump, however, is not interested:

AP: Iran indicates it’s received an official US response to its latest offer on ending the war

Trump swiftly rejected the proposal, saying Iran wanted to make a deal because it was “losing so badly” but that its offer “would not be acceptable.” Despite Trump’s public rebuffing, mediators continued working with Iran and the U.S. to try to broker a deal to end the fighting and open the strait, according to officials who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department unveiled new sanctions on Tuesday targeting people and companies around the globe that it accuses of being financial facilitators or enablers of Iran’s military supply chain.

Iran prefers to call it a "win-win":

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the U.S. response to President Masoud Pezeshkian at a Cabinet meeting, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told the state-run IRNA news agency.

“We will make every effort to bring the agreement to fruition and will firmly stand up for the rights of the Iranian people,” Pezeshkian said. “The agreement must now be based on a win-win strategy.”

So, here's the current state of the war:

  • Shipping is moving through Hormuz and is increasing week-to-week. Total traffic out of the Gulf is approaching pre-war levels.

  • Iran has no ability to seriously threaten shipping in the Straits.

  • Iran is seemingly unable or unwilling to continue striking other American targets and assets in the Gulf

  • Iran remains blockaded and unable to export its own products, contributing to severe stress on the Iranian economy.

  • Iran is more interested in negotiating peace than Trump is.

Forgive me for repeating old arguments but I need to be clear about this: Trump was right about Iran and America is winning.

I think the four vessels Iran just struck is evidence that they retain the ability to threaten shipping, as there are costs to damaging ships and American marines even if the ships technically pass through the strait

What does "struck" mean? What were the names of the ships? How much damage was done? How many casualties? Many of these reports fall into the category of 1) never happened or 2) got hit by a bullet or drone with minor damage

Since casualties weren't mentioned, I am guessing there weren't any. I think it's likely that these ships successfully transited the Strait and will come back again for more.

Imagine if this forum gave even 10% of the attention it gives to these stories as it does to debating each frame of police body cam video. We need to be a lot more skeptical.

These are UKMTO reports so we can be sure they’ve happened. They constitute an absolute minimum on the happening scale. The guy I linked in my last comment is consulted by like every news org. I would also think that Gregory Brew, “Senior Analyst Iran and Oil EurasiaGroup • Formerly ISSYale” is worth trusting, and he concurs.

What does "struck" mean? What were the names of the ships? How much damage was done? How many casualties? Many of these reports fall into the category of 1) never happened or 2) got hit by a bullet or drone with minor damage

This is all a mystery, but the 30 or so sailor casualties that were added to our total casualty figures probably means it’s a bit more than a bullet.

Since casualties weren't mentioned, I am guessing there weren't any

It’s not like these tankers are required to report everything to UKMTO right now, let alone accurate casualty figures.

That tweet is exactly what I'm talking about.

In the last 24 hours, UKMTO, which is sponsored by the British navy, has issued four reports of attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

From September 24-28, it issued no such reports despite the Iranian military's claim that it struck 19 vessels in the Strait of Hormuz from September 25-27.

He apparently thinks the UKMTO is fake and that Iran's propaganda is real? Iran said not too long ago that a VLCC hit two mines caught fire and stopped. Cool, what was the name of the ship? We have to discount Iran's pronouncements to near zero. The fact that this "serious" person isn't doing so shows that he's far from serious.

Ships are transiting the strait with impunity even if a few get dinged from time to time. I think there was an actual casualty event a week or two ago, so it's not completely nothing. But when an actual power like the US wants to attack a ship, they sink it, name it, and post the video.

We don’t really know if it’s “a few get dinged” though. The UKMTO number is the lowest number that US/UK are willing to release so that people continue taking the figure halfways seriously. If 20 vessels were struck, we might still find only 4 on the UKMTO. If we just added +38 sailor / marine casualties for September, either Iran hit one of our important military ships or Iran has hit a number of oil vessels being operated by sailors. Apparently there were 8 sailors on one oil vessel transiting that were injured, so perhaps Iran struck about five oil vessels sufficient to cause injury. Or perhaps even the +38 casualty number is lower than the true figure. The fact that we need our own soldiers operating oil vessels in yet another tell that it’s worse in the strait than Trump would like us to believe.

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