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So they claim, yet real prices are nowhere near pre-war levels. Reminds me of that old Stonetoss comic about Bitcoin.
Then: "Oil rises to $75!"
Later: "Oil CRASHES to $85!"
Later still: "Oil PLUMMETS to $95!"
All this without even mentioning that bond yields continue to soar despite Bessent burning billions in bond buybacks. At this point Trump's best chance to get prices back to normal is to hope for a global depression that kneecaps global demand sufficiently to make the Strait(s) irrelevant.
I would dare, because it's basically an American surrender to expect all the sanctions relief up front, before any discussion of the nuclear issue. Trump obviously wasn't going to accept, the point was to make Trump look obstinate to the neutrals. "Look, we're reasonable but Madman Trump would rather crash the global economy than make any concessions!"
Uh, obviously the Iranians would prefer Trump give up immediately rather than having to endure two more months/years of fighting.
Regardless, the Iranians have already done enough to ensure that the Dems retake Congress. Kalshi has them at 91% for the House and 63% for the Senate. They're already predicted to win Republican strongholds like Texas (62%) and Alaska (70%). The only real question is whether they think they've hurt Trump enough politically to establish deterrence or whether they decide to escalate and give Trump an October Surprise big enough to flip Kansas and Nebraska too.
OP is making the mistake too of thinking the Iranians are negotiating in good faith.
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These are two analyses from JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, not the American government.
Prices are falling. We would expect that the longer supply stays at pre-war levels the closer prices will get to pre-war levels too.
Fantasy world political predictions. It would sound more reasonable if you just said you thought Democrats were going to take the House.
Did I claim otherwise? JP and Goldman have, at different points in this conflict, predicted basically every possible outcome ranging from "total catastrophe" to "everything is fine in two weeks" so I don't put much stock in their claims. What matters is the actual market price which doesn't remotely reflect a reality in which everything is back to normal.
When you began declaring victory the price was somewhere near $80, right now it's sitting around $95.
If you prefer, Polymarket has Democrats winning the Senate at 63%. Are you willing to take even odds against the Dems winning the Senate?
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Yet those are the actual odds presented by the most accurate forecasting method we have. Maybe if the public has turned against the Trump admin so much that the electoral odds look like fantasy, it should be reason to self reflect on those failures that brought us here? Maybe one of the most unpopular wars in history was a mistake and no amount of propaganda changes that.
And as always with prediction markets, if you don't believe them, then go bet against it and make a lot of money.
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