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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   12332 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 28, 2026

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Bloomberg: JPMorgan and Goldman See Mideast Oil Flows Near Pre-War Levels

Crude oil flows from the Middle East are returning toward pre-war levels despite continued risks to shipping, according to separate estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,” JPMorgan analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in a Sept. 29 note. That’s “a remarkable recovery for a region still at war,” although it’s been uneven, they said.

Shipments of crude oil have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while flows of products such as diesel and gasoline were at 3 million barrels a day, or 58%, according to JPMorgan.

Oil is passing coming through the Middle East again, at essentially pre-war levels. Some of this is from oil bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, and some of this is from oil transiting the Strait under American protection.

Flows through Hormuz have almost “returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, led primarily by Saudi Arabia,” JPMorgan said. “But higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry’s increasing ability to operate under sustained risk.”

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, said oil exports from the Persian Gulf — including so-called dark flows moved clandestinely — had recovered to 23.3 million barrels a day over the last week, a level in line with the 2025 average.

Diesel and gasoline are still stymied, but, mostly, because Iranian exports are being blockaded by the US.

“We note a divergence between the fall of Iranian exports and the rise of exports of other Persian Gulf producers,” Goldman said. “Saudi estimated exports more than doubled in September and rose above their 2025 average.”

But other Gulf States are increasing their own exports to compensate for the missing Iranian piece.

It appears that the Iranians are not capable of stopping exports from flowing through the Straits, and so oil exports are returning to normal.

Meanwhile, Iran seemingly wants to end the war, although none dare call it "surrender":

New York Times: Iran Proposes 7-Day Plan to End War

Iran’s foreign minister said Thursday that Tehran had proposed to Washington a seven-day plan to cease hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz and then begin comprehensive talks on his country’s nuclear program.

Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, told reporters at a press briefing at the United Nations General Assembly that the proposal closely mirrored the commitments laid out in a so-called memorandum of understanding that was struck between the United States and Iran in June but quickly unraveled.

He said Iran was ready to begin putting the plan into effect as soon as Washington agreed to it.

“We have introduced a plan to the United States through the intermediators that if certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz would be open on the end of the seventh day and talks would restart,” Mr. Araghchi said.

He said “it would be better,” if a deal was reached before the U.S. midterm elections.

Iran wants, essentially, to return to something close to June's MOU, except on a faster timetable. Iran agrees to "reopen" the Straits in exchange for getting its confiscated $12 Billion, an end of the sanctions and blockade, and then to open discussions as to the future of its nuclear program.

Contrary to expectations that Iran is biding its time in hopes that Democrats will retake Congress, Iran says that it would prefer to reach a deal before the midterms.

Trump, however, is not interested:

AP: Iran indicates it’s received an official US response to its latest offer on ending the war

Trump swiftly rejected the proposal, saying Iran wanted to make a deal because it was “losing so badly” but that its offer “would not be acceptable.” Despite Trump’s public rebuffing, mediators continued working with Iran and the U.S. to try to broker a deal to end the fighting and open the strait, according to officials who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Treasury Department unveiled new sanctions on Tuesday targeting people and companies around the globe that it accuses of being financial facilitators or enablers of Iran’s military supply chain.

Iran prefers to call it a "win-win":

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi presented the U.S. response to President Masoud Pezeshkian at a Cabinet meeting, government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani told the state-run IRNA news agency.

“We will make every effort to bring the agreement to fruition and will firmly stand up for the rights of the Iranian people,” Pezeshkian said. “The agreement must now be based on a win-win strategy.”

So, here's the current state of the war:

  • Shipping is moving through Hormuz and is increasing week-to-week. Total traffic out of the Gulf is approaching pre-war levels.

  • Iran has no ability to seriously threaten shipping in the Straits.

  • Iran is seemingly unable or unwilling to continue striking other American targets and assets in the Gulf

  • Iran remains blockaded and unable to export its own products, contributing to severe stress on the Iranian economy.

  • Iran is more interested in negotiating peace than Trump is.

Forgive me for repeating old arguments but I need to be clear about this: Trump was right about Iran and America is winning.

I am glad that we've achieved the pre-war status quo, at an economic cost of a half trillion dollars or so.

Though, you also have claimed oil flows had been restored and complete US victory several times before. Maybe this time it'll stick. It'd be rational for Iran to accept peace on pretty much any terms, but that's been true for awhile.

To be clear, the pre-war status quo was that the strait was only "open" because Iran was using it as a hostage. Meanwhile they were investing heavily in their nuclear, drone, and ICBM programs, plus funding terrorist proxies abroad. Not to mention massacring any of their people who dared to protest.

All of that is gone now. Their missile factories are destroyed, their funds are gone, and most of their missiles have been used up. The only thing left is finding a way to permanently remove their nuclear material, which has been bombed into dust but is still there. And if they won't come to terms on that, the US and its allies can just keep bombing them indefinitely while other nations' oil goes through the Strait and Iran's economy falls ever further apart.

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/09/10/iran-has-resumed-ballistic-missile-production-report-says/

Tehran has resumed producing ballistic missiles, assembling them in underground sites around Iran, The Wall Street Journal has reported.

Quoting US and Middle East officials, the US news outlet said that Iran has been assembling liquid-propelled missiles using stockpiled parts, as well as solid-propellant missiles.

In April, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said Iran’s missile programme was “functionally destroyed".

These destroyed missile factories are surprisingly operational, just like Iran's 'destroyed' nuclear facilities back in 2025, somehow undestroyed by 2026. The US track record of destroying capability with airpower alone is so poor that it's surprising anyone still believes what they say.

"missile factories" means an actual, you know... factory. Organized industrial equipment, building large number of missiles, with ever increasing range and capabilities. That newspaper article just sounds like they've still got some leftover parts that they're crudely assembling underground, mad-max style.

It's tyhe same with their nuclear weapons program. They were actively using centrifuges to enrich greater and greater amounds of uranium 238, with the goal of making warheads. That material still exists, it's just been bombed and hard to use now, but it does still exist. That's what happens when you bomb someone... you set them back, but they'll eventually rebuild.

Honestly this all just sounds like motivated reasoning on your part. Like you hate Trump, and you want him to fail, so you're happily cheering for every minor advance the Iranians can pull off. Even though I'll bet you would actually the the IRGC if they were a real power or you met them in real life.

'We destroyed the Iranian navy' = we blew up some destroyers but didn't open the straits, nor are we straying near their shores because then we'd be in danger.

'We destroyed their missile factories' = missile production and firing continues anyway. So it wasn't functionally destroyed, was it?

'We destroyed their nuclear facilities' = damage done is so ineffectual that the US starts another war 9 months later. Nor were they making warheads. If they wanted to make warheads, they'd simply make them like North Korea did. The Israelis and Americans have been hysterical about Iran's nuclear ambitions for 30 years. It's not credible or serious to still maintain that Iran sought nukes but mysteriously remained 6 months, weeks, years away this whole time.

motivated reasoning

This is not the first idiotic Middle East war over imaginary WMDs. It's not the first time the US has massively overinflated what they've achieved with bombing, lied to everyone about how the war is actually going. Basic pattern recognition is sufficient to discern what's going on here.

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