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Paxton won a very competitive primary against an incumbent who spent $100 million. He won in a landslide. So he’s the guy, obviously. I think people are smart enough to vote strategically instead of handing the seat to a guy whose biggest concern is trans kids. Even Paxton’s estranged wife encourages people to vote for him.
Nate is the sober rationalist here. Kalshi has Talarico at 63%!
Technically true.
This is an actual ad that I just saw on Sunday Night Football. The message is, "our candidates suck this year, but uh, we still need you to vote for us I guess."
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Yeah, I think Nate and the team are trying to keep their model from leaning too far in one direction or another. And while Talarico has a nice lead right now, it's not so huge a gap that Paxton couldn't catch up if something happens between now and election day.
Remember that 63% betting odds is literally "too close to call" - if 37% of your calls were wrong, you would be bozo-binned for calling elections too early. It is far closer than a 63-37 poll lead.
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