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Notes -
I’m not sure how seriously I take polymarket, polls and Nate Silver. Not that they’re certainly wrong, but there’s always the issue of motivated reasoning. Elections are something that almost everyone cares about the outcome of, and this is going to come out in what people predict. A lot of people really really want a blue wave, just like a lot of people wanted Trump to lose. This shows up in polling data and predictions because they’re all made by humans.
I believe that Nate Silver wants to be right and does his best.
Now the question is not whether you take said sources seriously, but whether you do it consistently or not. Empirical evidence is that people that are under the impression they are winning are not busy unskewing the polls. When the Iowa gold standard poll came out two years ago, republicans didn't try to prove that it is wrong, they just laughed at it. With good reasons.
I have taken Nate seriously for more than a decade so far (and he has always given Trump higher chances than the rest of his cohort, so there is that), so if I have to make exception now - there has to be good reasons for it. This year may be different - but the only different thing so far is that I really dislike his prognosis.
Now if your gut tells you that Republicans are in better shape than presented, and said gut was also mostly right about the 2016-2024 elections - I will say - great - a track record is a track record.
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