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Something very strange is going on. Iran is negotiating its surrender. The war is over and Iran has lost.. I have been assured that the United States has destroyed Iran's ability of their proxies to project power in the Middle East.
Yet somehow, despite this war goal being accomplished and the war being over, Saudi Arabia is still being attacked by Iran's Proxies..
At least 12 people were killed and over 300 injured in a Houthi missile attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, October 10, 2026. This marks the third strike on the facility in one week and the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February.
In response, President Donald Trump stated the U.S. is considering joining Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against the Houthis, while the U.S. Embassy issued a security alert urging American citizens to avoid the Riyadh airport.
So to summarize, it looks like the war is expanding, Iran's proxies continue to be able to strike US allies, and Iran's proxies are escalating the conflict instead of backing down.
With early voting opening up soon for many states, what are the chances Iran has an October surprise in store for Trump? Trump has stated that the U.S. will not resume military strikes on Iran before the November 3, 2026 (midterm election). The U.S. military is deploying roughly 9,000 to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, which departed San Diego on October 4–5, 2026. This surge brings the total U.S. military presence in the region to over 60,000 personnel and establishes three aircraft carrier strike groups in the theater for the first time since April 2026.
So Iran knows that Trump wants the Iran War to quiet down before the Midterms, but he is preparing to escalate once it is over. Why would they play along with this? I believe there is a good chance they will escalate and cause Trump and Republicans political embarrassment soon. But maybe this doesn't matter, because for some reason, the Houthis don't count. So I guess everything is going according to plan. So this all could just be nothing.
If the war was being won, or even if Trump perceived the war was being won, then wouldn't he be making more extravagant demands too? At the start he was Truthing that only someone he chose or favoured could be president of Iran or else they'd keep up the assassination campaign (this was back in the regime change phase of the war, quite early on).
He's not doing that right now.
Instead of bullying Europe into releasing more diesel from their reserves or granting sanctions relief to Russia, he'd be trying to threaten or harass Iran more to capitalize on the victory. He'd be demanding money or oil from them under threat from bombing (since they don't have any air defences or ability to strike back, right?)
Trump is hardly likely to develop a magnanimous streak before a beaten opponent he routinely rails against and hates.
Surely if the US was winning or had won the war, they'd be moving back in and rebuilding the 5th fleet headquarters in Bahrain, sitting ships right in the straits to show control and allow the 200+ ships waiting around there to navigate freely. There wouldn't be any tankers being attacked, apparently 16 were in the last 2 weeks:
https://x.com/NoamRaydan/status/2109043440633946336
I don’t actually think the war was over. I was linking to a comment that had said it was 100% over.
I know, I agree with you. In retrospect I should've made that more clear.
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