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My dad actually did that once: compared the cost of gas with his SUV vs. the cost of gas+payments on a hybrid. Came out in favour of the latter. Granted, that was largely due to him having a sizeable commute at the time, and your point probably does hold true for most people.
That must be a really long commute on a very gas-intensive car, if the cost of payments on a new car still made the hybrid a savings. Could be possible for some people, but yeah in general it doesn't work out.
I recall it being over an hour (not counting traffic), and the other vehicle option was a Mercury Mountaineer. Call it 15-20 MPG?
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It depends on the car (the difference in price used to be much greater than it is now) and the location of the commute (pure-ICE mileage has gotten pretty good outside of stop-and-go driving) and on the future of gas prices too. My daughter picked out a hybrid for environmentalist reasons but I was surprised to see (even pre-bombing-Iran) that, if gas prices don't drop, the break-even point would be under 50k miles in. That would actually have been a reasonable investment if not for the opportunity cost vs the stock market going wild during the past few years.
On the other hand, I have a friend with a hybrid who made the same calculation during a gas price peak pre-fracking. Gas prices did drop. For a long time.
There's also auto work to consider. On average hybrids now are a little cheaper to maintain thanks to less engine and brake wear, but more expensive repairs means that one bad accident or post-warranty breakdown could put her back in the red there.
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