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Something very strange is going on. Iran is negotiating its surrender. The war is over and Iran has lost.. I have been assured that the United States has destroyed Iran's ability of their proxies to project power in the Middle East.
Yet somehow, despite this war goal being accomplished and the war being over, Saudi Arabia is still being attacked by Iran's Proxies..
At least 12 people were killed and over 300 injured in a Houthi missile attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh on Saturday, October 10, 2026. This marks the third strike on the facility in one week and the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February.
In response, President Donald Trump stated the U.S. is considering joining Saudi Arabia’s military campaign against the Houthis, while the U.S. Embassy issued a security alert urging American citizens to avoid the Riyadh airport.
So to summarize, it looks like the war is expanding, Iran's proxies continue to be able to strike US allies, and Iran's proxies are escalating the conflict instead of backing down.
With early voting opening up soon for many states, what are the chances Iran has an October surprise in store for Trump? Trump has stated that the U.S. will not resume military strikes on Iran before the November 3, 2026 (midterm election). The U.S. military is deploying roughly 9,000 to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group, which departed San Diego on October 4–5, 2026. This surge brings the total U.S. military presence in the region to over 60,000 personnel and establishes three aircraft carrier strike groups in the theater for the first time since April 2026.
So Iran knows that Trump wants the Iran War to quiet down before the Midterms, but he is preparing to escalate once it is over. Why would they play along with this? I believe there is a good chance they will escalate and cause Trump and Republicans political embarrassment soon. But maybe this doesn't matter, because for some reason, the Houthis don't count. So I guess everything is going according to plan. So this all could just be nothing.
It's hard to overstate how little this matters for the midterms. Saudi Arabia? The Houthis? To the extent that Americans know about these things at all, they accurately identify them as distant foreigners whose strange and violent customs are entirely alien to our own experience.
The Iran War? Also a nothingburger. Unless American GI's start getting sent home in bodybags, and they very much aren't, it just doesn't matter. We can keep this up forever and it doesn't even move the needle. Gas isn't expensive, except for diesel, and that is more related to what's happening in Russia. Not that voters even know or care.
And of course an October surprise would be very much good for Trump just as every other attack from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 has been good for the incumbent.
The midterm election will be decided based on vibes and turnout. Mundane things like rules for mail in ballots and early in person voting matter a lot. The Iran War does not. Who is even being swayed? What are you going to do, vote for the party of gender transitions and open borders because of a foreign conflict that has killed, checks notes, 21 service members? There are much bigger issues at stake, and everyone has already made up there mind. Both parties have a hard floor and a hard ceiling and rely mostly on elderly voters and ethnic voting blocs.
The internet is not the real world.
Where I am, gas is about $1 more expensive than before. That adds up to a massive, devastating cost of $50 per month in gas expenses. Whatever will we do???
But in all seriousness it's all about vibes and people don't like to see number go up. The egg shortage is over. But the beef shortage is not. People will forget the one that ended and only remember the current crisis.
In all practicality for people who eat beef often, the beef shortage likely affects cost of living more than fuel prices right now.
For some reason people are weirdly sensitive to gas prices, much more than they rationally should. I think because it's a big, specific number that you're constantly seeing whenever you drive near a gas station. You'll hear people talk about buying a brand new hybrid or electric car to "save on gas," even though there's no way the gas savings could ever add up to the cost of the new car.
My dad actually did that once: compared the cost of gas with his SUV vs. the cost of gas+payments on a hybrid. Came out in favour of the latter. Granted, that was largely due to him having a sizeable commute at the time, and your point probably does hold true for most people.
That must be a really long commute on a very gas-intensive car, if the cost of payments on a new car still made the hybrid a savings. Could be possible for some people, but yeah in general it doesn't work out.
I recall it being over an hour (not counting traffic), and the other vehicle option was a Mercury Mountaineer. Call it 15-20 MPG?
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It depends on the car (the difference in price used to be much greater than it is now) and the location of the commute (pure-ICE mileage has gotten pretty good outside of stop-and-go driving) and on the future of gas prices too. My daughter picked out a hybrid for environmentalist reasons but I was surprised to see (even pre-bombing-Iran) that, if gas prices don't drop, the break-even point would be under 50k miles in. That would actually have been a reasonable investment if not for the opportunity cost vs the stock market going wild during the past few years.
On the other hand, I have a friend with a hybrid who made the same calculation during a gas price peak pre-fracking. Gas prices did drop. For a long time.
There's also auto work to consider. On average hybrids now are a little cheaper to maintain thanks to less engine and brake wear, but more expensive repairs means that one bad accident or post-warranty breakdown could put her back in the red there.
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