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Notes -
I made a prediction that Iran might step up attacks before the midterms. Looks like that may be happening and the rates of attacks are up:
Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks
Container ship hit by projectile sinks in Strait of Hormuz, Singapore says
The decision to pause the war by Trump remains puzzling to me, and it suggests a lack of conviction in the war effort. A side confident of success would act immediately rather than grant Iran weeks to strengthen its defenses, plan retaliation, consult its allies, and position its assets. One thing it certainly isn't doing is helping with inflation:
Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September as gas prices skyrocket
Trump seems to have a plan though, although it is not popular even among Republicans:
Bipartisan group of senators call on Trump to rescind Russian diesel deal
Polling numbers and prediction markets also paint a pretty bleak forecast for the Republicans.
From Nate Silver:
If things go as they seem, we are about to witness the end of the age of Trump. If we get a Blue Tsunami -- and I believe we will -- Republicans are going to turn on him. Why wouldn't they? What can he offer them at this point but big fat L's. The only question now is what comes next on the Right, because it's certainly not Trumpism.
You've been sounding like a broken record repeating this talking point over and over. Trump got impeached twice and started a laughably incompetent coup, and he's still here. Surely this time he's going down.
Trump's influence will likely wane quickly after his term is over, as he's old as af and doesn't have any prospect of running for any other office. But you'd better get used to him being in the house because you have another 2 years of it.
Trump will remain the most powerful politician in America likely until the day he dies. You don’t literally need to be the one whose signature goes on an Executive Order to be the person where power resides. George Martin got this right. Joffrey sat on the thrown but the true power was Tywin. Whether it’s Little Rubio or Vance there power will be dwarfed by Trump and if it’s a Dem all eyes will still be on Trump though he will be less powerful in that scenario.
Why else would Dems still be talking about prosecuting Trump if his political power disappears when he’s not in the WH?
No he won't. Neither did a guy you may have heard about for whom there were such expectations - he was called Ofama or Osama or something. Now pushed into complete irrelevance.
Trump is on the verge of going senile, can't really connect with his disgruntled base anymore and well - doesn't have many years in front of him anyway.
Presidents can't become gray cardinals. The nature of their job forces them to step on too many toes, to grate on too many nerves, to cultivate too much dislikes.
Lefty dreams that the long nightmare of Trump will vanish with term limits and senility. On Obama he largely followed the tradition of standing in the background after he was out of office. Trump is not going to do that. He will be in the White House weekly on giving speeches under a GOP administration.
We aren’t leaving. And honestly now we can’t leave.
The easiest way to lose a (culture) war is to lose touch with reality. Seems now it is my side's turn to learn it.
Trump is in the age in which decline is geometric not linear. His zingers in 2016 were hilarious, in 2020 meh and in 2024 degraded to what could only be classified as street brawl insults. In two years he will be even older. In his first term his rating was bad but stable, now is on stable declining trajectory.
He had only 4 tasks for his second administration - improve the standard of living of the working class, mass depurations, make legal hispanics feel at home, no new wars. This would have cemented 2026, 2028 and eventually 2030.
This war is existential. Win or die. That’s the reality.
I never agreed to making legal Hispanics feel at home. I believe in denaturalization for many. I never agreed to no wars but trust Trumps decision making. You are literally just making up your goals. My goals of course aren’t the entire movements goals so some compromise is ok.
Democracy is just a nice to have thing. Figuring out how to get rid of it if we need to has to be on the table.
It takes some real effort to create worse plan for winning existential war than Zelensky but you seem to have managed it.
A huge country taken by coup that will lack absolute legitimacy in the big cities, led by 80 year old with waning charisma, record low approval, no clear successor, or a figure that people like in that movement aside from said 80 year old, a military that is by no way sure will even follow orders or obey. On top of that you seem to really want to turn it into whites vs everyone else, when the police forces and the military itself is quite integrated. And unfortunately for you the US military is not made out of 2 million Animal Mothers that will do it for fun. In the country in which there are more legal guns than people and ammo is sold like pez dispensers.
Doctor Strange: (panting) I went forward in time... to view alternate futures. To see all the possible outcomes of the coming conflict. Peter Quill: How many did you see? Doctor Strange: Fourteen million, six hundred and five. Tony Stark: How many did we win? (Doctor Strange pauses for a long, heavy moment and looks intently at Tony) Doctor Strange: ...One.
In the current situation to move towards authoritarianism that exclude the latinos (people with european ancestry and culture) - you need total support from all the whites and blacks. Yes even the ones suffering from TDS. Unlike
Don't get me wrong - there is probably a way to pull it off. If you completely automate the nuclear arsenal, take control of it and SV really have AGI and said it is on your side and hacks and disrupts organizing ability and you hold the country hostage with domestic nuclear strikes and demonstrate you are not bluffing. But then what would prevent Dario or Sam to just take control of the nukes and remake USA in their image? And who are the competent people in Trump's administration that could organize it?
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