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PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   17925 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 12, 2026

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I made a prediction that Iran might step up attacks before the midterms. Looks like that may be happening and the rates of attacks are up:

Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks

Container ship hit by projectile sinks in Strait of Hormuz, Singapore says

A Singapore-flagged container ship has sunk after being struck by an unknown projectile while transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to Singaporean authorities.

All 21 crew members of GFS Pride were evacuated and no injuries were reported after the attack on Tuesday, which caused damage and a fire, the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore said.

Another Singapore-flagged container vessel, GFS Giselle, sustained hull damage after being hit by a projectile on Wednesday but was able to reach a safe anchorage with all 22 crew, it added.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards said a ship hit naval mines and sank while passing through what they called an "unauthorised" route in the Strait of Hormuz.

The decision to pause the war by Trump remains puzzling to me, and it suggests a lack of conviction in the war effort. A side confident of success would act immediately rather than grant Iran weeks to strengthen its defenses, plan retaliation, consult its allies, and position its assets. One thing it certainly isn't doing is helping with inflation:

Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September as gas prices skyrocket

The consumer price index showed annual inflation of 3.7% in September after rising 0.6% for the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, posted an annual reading of 2.6% after climbing 0.3%.

Energy prices were a major factor again as gasoline rose 9.1% and accounted for half the increase in the index.

However, price pressures were broad-based, with gains in shelter, vehicle costs and apparel.

Trump seems to have a plan though, although it is not popular even among Republicans:

Bipartisan group of senators call on Trump to rescind Russian diesel deal

"This deal is a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our allies; it should be rescinded," wrote six Republican and six Democratic senators in a letter Tuesday to the president.

Polling numbers and prediction markets also paint a pretty bleak forecast for the Republicans.

From Nate Silver:

Over the weekend, Donald Trump hit yet another all-time approval rating low of net -23.9. As of today, he bounced back slightly to -22.4. That’s in large part due a pair of new polls — one from TIPP Insights and one from Noble Predictive Insights — that showed Trump at a relatively rosy net -13 and -12, respectively.

Things are also looking bearish for Trump on the issues. Net approval of how he’s handled trade (-28.7) and the economy (-29.9) are both near their all time lows. Trump’s inflation approval has dropped so much — to net -47.5 — that we’ve once again had to adjust the y-axis on our issue approval chart downward.

If things go as they seem, we are about to witness the end of the age of Trump. If we get a Blue Tsunami -- and I believe we will -- Republicans are going to turn on him. Why wouldn't they? What can he offer them at this point but big fat L's. The only question now is what comes next on the Right, because it's certainly not Trumpism.

Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks

Slightly misleading headline: one of the ships sank due to damage sustained in a September 23 strike (so unconnected to the recent surge, except that it maybhave hindered damage control/salvage efforts but I've seen no claims of such), the other from recent damage that Iran claims was a mine rather than a projectile.

So actually as a headline it seems to be very factually inaccurate, but directionally true.

Also they were container ships, likely very small ones going by the pictures. The unsaid implication is that they were tankers.

Of the ships that sank this week, one was a 39k dwt. container ship (~3k TEU), the other a 170k dwt. bulker. So yeah, neither was a tanker, but the 170k bulker is a pretty big ship -- too big for either Suez or Panama, I believe

It took me a bit to realize you weren't measuring capacity in pennyweights. That would make 170k dwt. about 600 lbs., so a small boat.

Now I know.

There's a ton of fog of war but I believe there are no mines and iran is just lying about the mines for some incomprehensible reason. I suspect Iran thinks the idea of missiles, drones AND mines is scarier than just missiles and drones.

There is only one single documented instance of a mine actually existing, it was announced by the ukmto in the mou period. You'd think that if there were actually mines, there would be at least a microscopic scrap of har evidence or osint of mines existing or demining activities actually happening.

Naval mines are like terrestrial mines, they are used for temporary area denial. There aren’t that many mine strikes because most ships are steering clear of the mined areas, which are well known. Ships can avoid the minefields easily, but that funnels them into areas where they are vulnerable to short range drones and coastal defenses. The ship last week was crewed by idiots who decided to just risk running through a mined area.

It's kinda sad there aren't mines considering how easy it would be for a semi-functional country to make them.

I assume Iran has some mines in the back, but the countermeasures are good enough that they're not worth using.

Countermeasures, and sea control to prevent placing them. I think Iran has historically tended more towards small-boat-deployed mines, rather than rocket/air/torpedo deployment, although it wouldn't surprise me if they've also got (had?) some capability in those later categories that the US has been heavily targeting.

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