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Notes -
I made a prediction that Iran might step up attacks before the midterms. Looks like that may be happening and the rates of attacks are up:
Two ships sink near Hormuz after being hit by projectiles amid surge in attacks
Container ship hit by projectile sinks in Strait of Hormuz, Singapore says
The decision to pause the war by Trump remains puzzling to me, and it suggests a lack of conviction in the war effort. A side confident of success would act immediately rather than grant Iran weeks to strengthen its defenses, plan retaliation, consult its allies, and position its assets. One thing it certainly isn't doing is helping with inflation:
Consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September as gas prices skyrocket
Trump seems to have a plan though, although it is not popular even among Republicans:
Bipartisan group of senators call on Trump to rescind Russian diesel deal
Polling numbers and prediction markets also paint a pretty bleak forecast for the Republicans.
From Nate Silver:
If things go as they seem, we are about to witness the end of the age of Trump. If we get a Blue Tsunami -- and I believe we will -- Republicans are going to turn on him. Why wouldn't they? What can he offer them at this point but big fat L's. The only question now is what comes next on the Right, because it's certainly not Trumpism.
Slightly misleading headline: one of the ships sank due to damage sustained in a September 23 strike (so unconnected to the recent surge, except that it maybhave hindered damage control/salvage efforts but I've seen no claims of such), the other from recent damage that Iran claims was a mine rather than a projectile.
So actually as a headline it seems to be very factually inaccurate, but directionally true.
Also they were container ships, likely very small ones going by the pictures. The unsaid implication is that they were tankers.
Of the ships that sank this week, one was a 39k dwt. container ship (~3k TEU), the other a 170k dwt. bulker. So yeah, neither was a tanker, but the 170k bulker is a pretty big ship -- too big for either Suez or Panama, I believe
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