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So Trump has now not only signed an oil deal with Russia, but also wants to lift sanctions. This seems totally indefensible. Not only does it send a clear signal (if the Greenland debacle was not clear enough) that America no longer gives a shit about the rules-based world order or the stability of the west as a block, by removing sanctions from a country that is fighting an aggressive war and that Europe regards as a serious threat. It also lifts sanctions on an ally of Iran. A country that America is currently fighting and active war against. A country that Russia is providing with military aid. He is trying to lower the high oil prices caused by the war with Iran, but seemingly making Iran stronger in the process by aiding its ally, thus making the war more difficult.
Is there some 5head strategy move I am not seeing here? Or is the man actually that inept? Is this because he is mad that Zelensky called him weak?
It seems stupid and incredibly short sighted, and it is difficult to see how this will even help America.
Russia is not a threat to Europe, in fact a hypothetical conservative influence from Russia upon Europe is one of the few things that could save it from an impending migrant-driven extinction. The idea that Russia is a threat to Europe is (funny enough) something America has wanted Europeans to believe for decades, because a German-Russian bloc could threaten our global hegemony per STRATFOR. Our propaganda may have gotten out of control and now our Frankenstein believes the invention more than its creator. Imagining a German taking off his headset after a long day of playing CS2 with Russian teammates, walking past a German Christmas market playing Tchaikovsky, picking up a Kabab from the local Muslim-owned restaurant operated by Salafis who want to ban music, then returning home to complain about the Russian threat to Europe… I don’t know, I don’t get it. Europe is out of gas right now because the Jewish lobby in America pressured our President into a war in Iran. Are European Jews more European than actual Christian Europeans creating good classical art? It boggles me. A friend of mine is an opera singer in Germany, there are all sorts of Slavs in the arts, not so many Salafis though yet you’ve made the latter citizens.
I think he wants to starve out Iranians with a long embargo. This helps prolong the duration of the ridiculous war in Iran.
Coffee, people pointed out before how totally insane your take of: "Russians are actually based and trad" is, but I guess it's my turn, again:
You remember that Moscow has an official Muslim population in the 1-2 million range, comparable with Paris, and rising, plus many more unofficial migrants push it much higher. Relations are not great, with many past terrorist attacks. You might say the same about the west, but this is the same story, not a solution by the Russians.
Russia's elite is wildly corrupt, stealing from its own population rampantly in a way that would make Alex Jones' theories of elite misbehavior look tame. Their model has kept Ukraine and Belarus edit poor versus their more west leaning compatriots, and only oil revenues sustain them - they have no economic theory or model for flourishing worth exporting, and everyone knows it. Ukrainians knew this well before Maidan, but that is what pushed them over the edge, they aspire to be Poland or the Baltics, not a vassal of a shitty larp of a rotting pretend trad state.
Don't let yourself be ruled over those who hate you is the best red tribe advice I've read on here, and it cut to my heart. The Ukrainians know it, I'm confused how you miss it? They seem pretty based to me.
We also have many war crime incidents in the war, both by and inflicted onto Russians - who immediately upon entering Ukraine killed civilians and looted almost at random. Remember, this while they were told Ukrainians would fold, welcome them and it would be over in weeks - why can't you see these people are not in any way people you want near your family or those you love, and I would pay serious blood and treasure to keep that it way?
Once again (as you did not reply before), possibly the incident most be interested in was the Russian soldier raped by Kadyrov's troops who are used as barrier troops and left to run rampant over their Christian charges, who then hung himself. Not sure if you read Russian, but a rough translation is: "Goodbye. love, in the time that I am here I have seen hell. There were not so many deaths in Chechnya or even Afganistan. seas of human meat. but that is not why i depart. We here, Russian people, are nobody, and Chechens rule. They drink, are lawless and rape, they despise everyone and no ones doing anything about it. Kitty, they took all the money you sent and they did a thing to me. This is to let you know that I resisted. Remember that you and me owe nothing to anyone. This is the only way out. See you after death". That's your positive influence for resisting Muslim influence?
I don't think Russia is a trad state paragon, but as far as I can tell on a quick Google trip, you're a little confused about this.
In 1995 Belarus and Ukraine had similar GDP per capita (PPP) of around $4000 - in fact, Ukraine's was slightly higher. By 2021, Belarus had completely outstripped Ukraine, rising to about $27k versus nearly $18K.
Meahwhile Russia started off in 1995 with a significant lead at about $18K, down from the 1990's $30K. By 2021 it had risen back to nearly $39K GDP per capita (PPP).
To me, this indicates substantial Ukrainian economic mismanagement compared to Russia and Belarus.
If you have better sources I am all ears.
Hi Shrike -
Possibly a bit clumsy wording by me there. I didn't mean that Belarus and Ukraine are literally at the same level of income, rather that there is a clear bifurcation in the post Soviet states - those who moved into a Western, EU orbit became much more wealthy, those who stayed stuck in a Russian orbit were much poorer, while those like Hungary that went one way then moved towards a Russian type patronage model for a protracted time saw their growth collapse versus neighbors.
Ukraine is poorer than Russia, and Belarus - stuck in the Russian orbit without significant hydrocarbon revenues or Russia's heavy subsidies of Belraus and Ukraine's post Soviet heavy industry had a much harder job adapting than Belarus' agriculture. Plus, all three have a deep oligarch problem, which Ukraine will have to deal with.
My contention is that a future Ukraine in the western system has no reason why it can't achieve something like Poland or the Baltics, and they know it - that was the literal trigger for Maidan. Honestly, they could probably have a higher HDI/GDP per capita than Russia, even without any hydrocarbons, that's what Poland proved as a reference class.
There's actually a lot of really good publications and papers on how Russia's economy functions - I really like those on the rent management system and they were super useful when I did economics over there. I think Gaddy and Ickes are really readable too, but there are others!
This makes more sense!
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